本周摘要
游戏
Crypto项目的估值
数字安全
NFT的变化
BaaS
Ghost Kitchen
其他
游戏
Amazon的CEO在第一个大制作成功后发表感言
Amazon CEO Says Video Games Could Become the Largest Entertainment Business
这和Netflix的思路基本一致,也预示着娱乐平台会从单一功能转变为多功能。
Netflix的Squid Game大火,Roblox里面已经有了复制。这个速度真的是惊人。
Roblox最近还有reality show和演唱会。
Paris Hilton to Launch Her Own Roblox Virtual World, Complete With DJ Stages and a Private Jet
Twenty One Pilots in Concert—As Roblox Avatars
所以,Roblox也不是一个单纯的游戏。不过这家公司,不管是从游戏来看,还是从社交平台来看,都觉得现在的市值已经不低了。
BVP认为游戏有两大趋势。第一是社交化,代表公司是Roblox和Fortnite。
This leads to the first of two major trends we have been tracking in the consumer social space: games themselves are becoming more social. Over the past few years, games have evolved from semi-interactive content to become fully-fledged social platforms. Rather than having gamers on a platform connect with one another in third-party online channels, many successful games now enable and promote the usage of in-game socialization. Players meet and chat on platforms like Fortnite and Roblox, which both boast hundreds of millions of MAUs spending hours a day in their ecosystems. Fortnite, for example, has embedded voice chat for players to talk as they play the game. In the game Animal Crossing, where each player builds an island (their personal world), players can chat with their fellow villagers and trade items, and even attend live events with each other.
第二是Gamification机制延伸到其他领域,代表公司是Robinhood,Duolingo和Bumble。
We first observed this trend as companies in verticals like consumer fintech began to adopt game mechanics like “coins,” “badges” and “streaks” to increase engagement. Consumer fintech Robinhood, for example, released celebratory confetti (much like victory confetti in a game) to users once they completed their third investment until regulatory scrutiny caused them to eliminate the feature. We also noticed companies leveraging gamification to promote behaviors in education, social media and dating. Duolingo famously incentivizes users who learn multiple language lessons in a row with badges and streaks. Snap promoted engagement through user streaks and still borrows the gamification technique of manufactured scarcity through disappearing messages. Bumble, the dating app, allows users to buy “Bumble coins” so that they can get access to features like a “SuperSwipe”; A number of consumer companies now utilize in-game currency as a driver for both engagement and monetization. We wrote more about consumer gamification strategy in our latest piece on consumer distribution.
考虑到现在的年轻人都是从小玩游戏,这个趋势也是合乎情理。
Crypto项目的估值
在crypto里面谈估值,总觉得有些奇怪。
最近A16Z投资了Axie Infinity后面的公司Sky Marvis,估值30亿美元。
而AXS Token的市值是338亿。根据之前的计划,Sky Marvis占有21%。
也就是说Sky Marvis单单是持有的AXS就值67亿,更不要说钱包,Ronin,IP,和别的optionality了。这个30亿的估值太便宜了。
当然也许在市场眼中AXS并不值那么多钱。AXS在游戏成功后,估值一直保持在极低的水平。
数字化的安全
Syniverse被hack
Syniverse handles billions of text messages a year, and hackers had unauthorized access to its system for years.
可以联想到之前Coinbase上6000个账户被黑。恰好是基于SMS的2FA被偷。
"However, in this incident, for customers who use SMS texts for two-factor authentication, the third party took advantage of a flaw in Coinbase’s SMS Account Recovery process in order to receive an SMS two-factor authentication token and gain access to your account."
Cloudflare对这不会惊讶,早就提醒了
看来self-custody还是很有市场的,因为理论上所有数字化的敏感信息都会被偷。
NFT的变化
变得越来越抽象。在Loot的后面还能有两层。当然JPEG也不是终点。
在这么一个快速发展的领域,所有交易都被OpenSea霸占似乎不太合理。
Andrew Cronje,准备推出免费平台Artion
Artion sports a remarkably similar front end to OpenSea, the indisputable NFT market leader that processed $3.5 billion in volume in August and which reportedly commands over 95% of all NFT sales.
Unlike OpenSea, Artion’s code is entirely open source, and the platform does not charge a fee for minting or purchasing NFTs. OpenSea charges a flat 2.5% fee on all purchases and is native to Ethereum, whose network has been suffering from high fees as of late. Approving a contract interaction routinely runs as high as $15 in network fees.
Sushiswap有Shoyu,差异化的产品
还是有人对NFT持怀疑态度,认为这是MLM。只能说骗子一直都是聪明的群体。
Recruiting New Believers is Key to Growth: These pictures only have the value that others say they have. In espousing the doctrine of cryptopunks, you push the value of your own asset higher. This is especially helpful when the person stanning your project is a tech celebrity. Note: A good example of this is a major tech CEO calling his Cryptopunk the “digital Mona Lisa” and going on podcasts to talk about it.
Sell A Community, Attach a Product: You’ll often hear anecdotes of “when I put my [PFP project of choice] as my profile pic, I added hundreds of followers. I love interacting with people on the Discord and learning from them.” Having a PFP makes you feel like you are a part of something.
Convince Them They are Owning Something: This language is part of the core value proposition of NFTs. You own the JPEG! It is unclear if that matters or not in the real world, but for the viability of these projects it does.
The Downline: Here the analogy is more difficult to see. PFP founding teams hold downline structures by skimming a % of the revenue off the top. However, the individual JPEG holders do not actually receive direct compensation from recruiting a new believer. Ironically, the right MLM will probably generate better returns for early believers than a PFP project will because of the lack of a downline.
BaaS
Modern Treasury的估值在一年内内上涨了6倍。
Payments software provider Modern Treasury said it’s valued at more than $2 billion after a funding round led by Altimeter Capital.
The $85 million investment also included existing investors Benchmark and Quiet Capital, giving the San Francisco-based startup a big jump in its valuation. Modern Treasury was valued at around $300 million at the beginning of the year, according to co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Dimitri Dadiomov.
Modern Treasury不是SaaS,而是BaaS,Banking as a service。美国市场的主要玩家有
目前上市的有Marqeta和SoFi(收购了Galileo)。Marqeta是一个主要服务大客户,并且同Square深度捆绑的公司。Galileo的质量好像还不如Marqeta。Marqeta的股票走势一般。
有人认为在这个领域会出现一个类似Twilio一样的公司。如果是的话,我想应该是在右下角的那个象限,毕竟Twilio的客户数量庞大。但是BaaS的客户数量最终会有多少是有疑问的。因为发送短信的需求是普遍的,而embedded finance是一个新的尝试,同时Marqeta的例子证明了头部客户会很重要。
Ghost Kitchen
整个外卖行业由于疫情比原来的预测提前了2到3年。所以现在也有很多公司在想下面一步的发展是什么。
All Day Kitchen认为现在的Ghost Kitchen有几个问题
Ken and Matt quickly noted a few problems with the conventional “ghost kitchen” model. First, traditional warehouse kitchens require significant scale in real estate, so the cost per square foot needs to be much lower than a typical restaurant. Those spaces don’t typically exist near where people live. So delivery orders fulfilled by warehouse kitchens in cheap, industrial zones often take significant time to reach the end-customer — resulting in a poor customer experience. Second, restaurants do not want to manage additional staff in a warehouse kitchen in order to scale. They have enough trouble hiring line chefs at competitive rates and can only manage so much labor complexity in a small business. Third, each restaurant manages its own menu and assortment in a traditional warehouse model, working with a restricted menu to streamline operations. It therefore lacks the ability to cross-sell into a longer tail of products, and participating in multi-restaurant baskets is impossible.
所以他们的解决方法是
All Day Kitchens was designed with a novel operational model in mind. Instead of large centralized warehouse kitchens, it operates a dense network of distributed small kitchens that sit in neighborhoods close to the customer.
Restaurants prepare food in their own kitchens during down time and ship product “nearly finished” into the All Day Kitchens network. Each All Day Kitchens location (today in SF, Chicago, LA, and Dallas) serves food from dozens of these “local heroes,” and consumers can order through their favorite delivery app like DASH or UBER, or directly on Alldaykitchens.com. Users can add their favorite CPG products to orders, and even place multi-restaurant orders in the same cart. Ever feel like a bit of curry or dumplings with your burger, maybe with a bit of ice cream to finish? All Day Kitchens has got you covered!
让我想起了一家进军美国市场的台湾公司Just Kitchen。也是同样的运用模式
公司的股价表现还不错
其他
这张图倒是挺政治正确的。
全球的半导体生产
备注:我持有的股票包括FVRR,NET,DOCU,PTON,SPOT,TDOC,TWLO,TWTR,SQ,DUOL,SHOP,MRNA,TKWY,ZG,FB。
从结果上来看,中国的外卖代运营最后都被外卖平台吸血吸死了。No operating leverage