概要
Facebook对比Twitter
Web 3.0的投资
Matt Stoller的Substack
Crypto的估值
Digital Health的估值
其他
Facebook 对比 Twitter
在最近的earning call里面,两家公司都强调了自己业务的3个重点。对比着读还挺有意思的。
Facebook是
creator(指Instagram Reel,侧重于Tiktok的竞争)
commerce(指marketplace,侧重于monetization)
reality lab(META)
Twitter是
news(产品功能)
discussion(产品功能)
creator(monetization)
Facebook是准备豪赌,而Twitter还在寻找自己应该有的样子。
不过,上面的两个还是沿着公司原有的方向在发展。而Twilio则修改了mission statement。这样的事情也挺少见的。从
fuel the future of communications
变为
unlock the imagination of builders
Web 3.0的投资
CeFi里面的重头是FTX的900M。
NFT里面是Dapper Lab的250M和OpenSea的100M。
Infrastructure是一个竞争很激烈的领域。
这周Alchemy融资了。
Exactly six months after raising $80 million at a $505 million valuation, blockchain and Web3 development SaaS startup Alchemy has raised $250 million in a Series C funding round that values the company at $3.5 billion.
Web 3.0的AWS
客户群很不错
Today, Alchemy powers a range of transactions across nearly every blockchain vertical, including financial institutions, exchanges, billion-dollar decentralized finance projects and multinational organizations such as UNICEF. It has also quickly become the technology behind every major NFT platform, including MakersPlace, OpenSea, Nifty Gateway, SuperRare and CryptoPunks. Other customers include Dapper Labs, Axie Infinity, Fortune 500s building on blockchain such as the recently signed Adobe, PricewaterhouseCoopers. It also serves “the majority of DeFi.”
小一点的Moralis和QuickNode也完成融资。
这块下面发展会很快,因为不少2.0的人才开始迁移了。基建做好,后面的可能性会更多。
Matt Stoller的Substack
这个substack很有意思。主要是抨击美国的企业垄断行为。我一开始只是了解一下,后来发现这个东西可以倒过来读。其实就是一本厉害的秘笈。
比如最近讨论肉类加工行业,形成垄断是通过压缩open market
At first this was fine, since there were plenty of cash markets with lots of buyers and sellers. But packers began signing more and more of these side deals, sometimes with an ‘offer you can’t refuse’ kind of mentality. And that meant there was less and less cattle in the cash market, until virtually nothing was bought or sold in the open. The cash market, now just 20% of all sales, became what is known as ‘thin,’ meaning there’s a lot less bought and sold. Thin markets are a lot easier to manipulate; a buyer could just pull out of an auction. That doesn’t just lower the price paid in that cash market, but also the cash price for all the captive supply contracts as well.
With this kind of system, it’s extremely tempting for packers to push prices down in thin markets, and thus lower their costs for all their private side deals as well. And in fact, that appears to be just what the packers did. They pretty much announced it publicly. In 2015, for instance, a Tyson executive said on an investor call that “because we run for margin and not market share, we’re not willing to overpay for cattle.” At around that time, a JBS executive praised industry-wide plant closures, saying it left them in a “very good position” to achieve balance. These kinds of comments from insiders at the Big Four became somewhat routine around 2015.
也就是说,在市场经济的框架下,可以不需要通过行政手段而达成非市场经济的效果。非常有借鉴意义。
Crypto的市值
这周Shiba Inu的市值达到了400亿,超过了没有给Shiba Inu提供listing的Robinhood。
Crypto里面有一个现象就是,价格越贵,合法性越大,成功的可能性越高。用在传统的公司里面,就是越能融资,成功的可能性越大。
这当然也说明了crypto里面有很多speculative的资金。所以不用怀疑,crypto肯定是在早期。Ben Thompson关于web 2.0和web 3.0的所在阶段也进行了讨论。
根据过去1年的VC投资情况,也是在2.0里面疯狂下注,同时开始投资3.0。
现在很有意思的是,crypto和SaaS一样,虽然比以前疯狂,但是还有内在逻辑存在。比如表现不好的SaaS公司股价会跌,Crypto里面的传统DeFi已经很久没有涨过了。
Digital Health的估值
Teladoc发了财报,和上个季度的内容差不多。一方面证明Livongo的成长有问题,另一方面继续画virtual primary care这个bundle的饼。
Teladoc的NTM EV/S是10,对比增长在30%的SaaS细分行业龙头,是明显偏低的。就算对比被微软收购的Nuance也是明显偏低。Nuance基本没有增长,EV/S是14。
不过,又看到一个创业公司的融资情况。Truepill一个提供在线药房服务的公司,客户包括GoodRx。最近推出了Telehealth和Diagnostic服务。估值达到15亿美元,而销售预计也有3亿美元。所以估值也很低。
这个行业由于受限于保险公司,一直发展不是太快。Teladoc的earning call倒是透露了几个事情。现在很多startup主攻DTC渠道,思想上是anti-payer的。另外上周谈到由于苹果的改变,DTC的CAC大增,但是Teladoc居然说自己的CAC还下降了。
所以根据Teladoc这个公司的历史,维持股价在一个不错的水准,继续收购就对了。
其他
印度人太惨了
市场不关心你担心什么
但是不要忘了成为turkey的风险
备注,我持有的股票包括NET,FVRR,DOCU,SPOT,PTON,TDOC,TWLO,TWTR,SQ,DUOL,SHOP,ZG,TKWY,FB,MRNA,DWAC和DMYQ。