摘要
Zillow
Metaverse
NFT和游戏
DeFi 2.0
Bitcoin和Square
Freelancer
Peloton
Others
Zillow
这个赌注是失败了,是直接证伪了。
对于iBuying这个事情,一开始是不太看好的。重资产,低毛利,强运营。不过想到Carvana的股价,觉得也许还是可以赌一下的。对于用户来说,提供的好处是一样的,数字化的体验和便利。
现在想想房子和车还是有很大的区别。第一,车有足够的标准化。第二,车有地域的流动性,可以A点收到的车子买给B点的客户。
为什么不赌Opendoor?还是因为对iBuying这件事情不太确信。其次,如果iBuying这个市场够大的话,不应该是一家垄断的局面。Zillow的优势是CEO能力强,网站流量够大。而且如果失败了,Zillow的股价也不会太惨。
对于Zillow的失败,很多人说是算法原因。这是一方面。但是Opendoor的算法也不一定是完美的。
不管是算法或者执行能力,我觉得这都是短期的问题。CEO决定停止业务是觉得有系统性风险。这是有一定道理的。
iBuying的本质是提供便利。理论上是要求卖家给个折扣来换这个便利。但是当公司想要追求成长的时候,就会溢价去收房。这时候,就变成了拿了一大笔钱在短期炒房了。而在今年房屋价格上涨的时候,还要预估后面的上涨。所以当市场变冷的时候,trading loss就来了。这时候,二手房和二手车的区别就变得很重要。
规模未必是优势。Zillow把自己做挂,也就是一个季度的事。可见风险在业务量变大的情况下会很大。如果iBuying的市场是现在的10倍,只要10-20%的错误就已经致命。不怕房价的高低,但是扛不住volatility。因此iBuying有可能长期只是一个niche market。
当然Opendoor目前的情况比Zillow要好很多。所以我的take-away是不要去赌一个老狗学到新的东西。如果不愿意在Opendoor上下注,不要赌就好了。
Metaverse
这周Ben Thompson在讨论Facebook做Metaverse这件事。本质就是要寻找下一个computing platform,这样就可以绕过苹果。
他也谈到下一个computing platform这样的项目只能由big tech实现。
Without question…at least when it comes to software and services. The issues in this space specifically, though, is that it involves hardware, and hardware is exceptionally expensive to develop and to sell at scale. Think about it: what major hardware-based platforms have come from startups? Microsoft piggy-backed on IBM, the iPhone came from Apple, and what else is there, really? If you want to look at consoles, the Playstation came from Sony and the Xbox from Microsoft, and both took a whole lot of money — far more money than is typically available to a venture-funded startup.
现在App Store和Steam都明确排斥NFT游戏,所以Axie Infinity只能是一个卡牌游戏。难道Facebook做成了,就会比苹果开放和合理?之前就说过Metaverse是延续,而crypto是disruption。关键点不是metaverse,而是centralization和decentralization。
这周Wired也有类似的观点
The Metaverse Is Simply Big Tech, but Bigger
It’s a rebrand of Silicon Valley's increasing power and reach. And it’s made for companies, not people.
THE IDEA OF the metaverse has reemerged under a new sky. The current frenzy? It’s simply a succinct way for Big Tech to repitch its extensive lineup of products. The metaverse describes the next state of the internet’s consolidation, a marketing spin on Big Tech’s increasing reach and power. It’ll be Big Tech—just as problem-riddled as now—but bigger.
NFT和游戏
这周NFT游戏的新闻太多了。估计都是借着Facebook改名字的势头。
Animoca Brands为Sandbox融资92M
The Sandbox is expected to be released in alpha mode before the end of the year, however, the game has already seen as many as 500,000 users connect their crypto wallets to the platform, generating $144 million worth of NFT sales.
Solana和FTX成了100M的游戏基金。第一个投资是Faraway的Mini Royale。
Mythical Games融资100M,估值1.25Bn。
Mythical Games has raised $150 million at a $1.25 billion valuation to launch its Blankos Block Party open-world multiplayer game as well as its platform to create games with nonfungible tokens (NFTs).
One of the reasons for the excitement around Mythical is that it could be a bridge between blockchain technology and the triple-A game community, which has been reticent about diving into blockchain games out of fear of things such as scams, regulator crackdowns, and hostility from gamers.
老狗们也准备行动了。
This week, both Strauss Zelnick, CEO of Take-Two Interactive and Andrew Wilson, CEO of Electronic Arts, both responded to investor queries on analyst calls about NFTs. And they both said that NFTs represented an interesting new way to monetize digital collectibles in games, which players have enjoyed for many years.
Today, during a financial briefing covering the six-month period ending on September 30, Square Enix—which also publishes "Tomb Raider" and "Dragon Quest"—described plans to further explore the NFT space by offering collectibles and blockchain-driven video games.
Mixi, a prominent Japanese mobile game and app publisher, plans to create NFT-centric experiences on the Flow blockchain. The firm’s biggest mobile game, Monster Strike, has grossed $9 billion and amassed 55 million total players to date.
而Axie Infinity在往DeFi发展
To incentivize Katana liquidity, 10% of the total RON supply will be rewarded to liquidity providers who stake their deposits in both SLP/ETH and AXS/ETH. The rewards for these pools will be activated later this week. We anticipate that these rewards will create a whirlpool effect, sucking in AXS, SLP, ETH, and USDC to Katana.
DeFi 2.0
DeFi的老狗开始在往2.0靠拢了。
Aave下面要开始支持cross-chain,eMode和Isolation Mode。Isolation Mode和Fuse很像。
Isolation mode for a token means that only governance-approved stablecoins up to a given debt ceiling would be able to be borrowed against the asset.
Additionally, users who deposit “isolated assets” won’t be able to borrow against any of their other assets deposited as collateral (although those assets can still earn yield).
Maker准备动态控制Aave的DAI利率。
Periods of high demand in DeFi produce high spikes in borrowing rates that negatively affect users that have to pay higher than expected costs over their loans. D3M will act over the main DAI lending market (Aave) by stabilizing its DAI interest rates. When the demand for it is high, DAI will be minted and supplied over Aave to decrease its interest rates. Conversely, if demand is low DAI liquidity will be removed from Aave in order to increase its interest rate.
通过增加收入来提升positive feedback
The term most used between DeFi 2.0 proponents is liquidity. But protocol controlled value, positive feedback loops, and incentives alignment come with it. The D3M feature is all of that. It issues liquidity algorithmically and directs it towards secondary markets in a feedback loop that improves interest rates to drive up demand. That demand increase will accrue more fees and thus benefit the MKR holders with token burns.
不要问我这期周报为什么提到这么多的狗狗。
Bitcoin和Square
纽约和迈阿密为了成为crypto的中心,两个市长都愿意把自己的工资变为比特币。这种领导还是不错的,skin in the game。
Square的Jack Dorsey是Bitcoin的maximalist。这次在季报中谈到了要在Bitcoin上推出DeFi。11月19号发paper。比较让人失望的是,Cash App不会对NFT有支持。Square还是挺稳重的。
最近有人研究了PPP Loan的欺诈,Square的表现也不错。
A disproportionate number of these loans were facilitated by fintech companies – over 52% of them, despite fintech companies doing only 29% of the total loans. Nine of the ten lenders with the highest rates of suspicious loans are fintech lenders.
Among the fintech companies, Square stands out as a lender with a very good risk discipline, originating proportionally less potentially fraudulent loans than the overall industry average. In contrast, close to one in three loans originated by Cross River Bank, one of the largest PPP lenders in the country, is potentially fraudulent. The company made over $1 billion in fees doing PPP loans.
Square的财报其实挺弱的,Cash App的增长势头已经停止。所以Afterpay还是很重要的。
Freelancer
Honeybook,估值2.4Bn。
As the number of people becoming independent workers rises, investors are taking notice of startups helping these workers build their businesses. HoneyBook is the latest to feel some love in this area, unveiling Wednesday that it raised $250 million in Series E funding, just six months after securing $155 million of Series D capital.
HoneyBook’s software enables business owners to organize their workflow, streamline their client list and manage cash flow. Tools include embedded financial services, like payments and the company’s recently launched capital product, which gives eligible members access to the funds for business growth. The new product integrates the repayment process transparently into existing transactions.
Not only did that shift yield double HoneyBook’s annual recurring revenue since the beginning of 2021, the company also more than doubled its new subscribers in the last 12 months. Its members also achieved success, Alon noted, booking more than $1.8 billion on the platform in 2021, bringing total bookings to over $5 billion since the company launched in 2013.
他的竞争对手Contra也在融资,而且支付不收费。
Contra, a professional network for independent workers, unveiled a new payment model Tuesday that lets users accept payments for their services on Contra without paying any commission fees.
The new feature comes as the company brings in $30 million in Series B funding, led by NEA, with participation from Unusual Ventures and Cowboy Ventures, both of which invested in Contra’s $14.5 million Series A earlier this year. The latest funding round gives the company just under $45 million in total funding, Ben Huffman, Contra founder and CEO told TechCrunch.
Contra provides tools for independent workers to build a professional identity and manage their work from inquiry to project scope discussion to signing a contract to getting paid, all without having to pay upwards of 20% of fees that other independent work websites may charge, Huffman said.
Freelancer的市场应该是很火。Square的Invoice功能也是快速增长,在过去的12个月交易量为12Bn。
所以LinkedIn也来了。
Service Marketplace was first leaked out as a small test in February this year. Since then LinkedIn has been running a quiet beta of the service in the U.S., which has already picked up 2 million users from among the nearly 800 million users (as of yesterday’s earning report) that LinkedIn now has globally. As of today, Service Marketplace is going to be turned on for everyone globally: to set up a freelancer profile, you go to your own profile page, find the button near the top and follow the script to set it up and flag what you might be interested in working on.
Upwork的业绩很一般。而Fiverr最近有两个收购。一个是收购帮助企业管理freelancer
Stoke’s toolset includes features to onboard new freelancers; employers can also pay them through the platform, and accordingly track their overall freelance budgets. The idea here is to build tools that both tie in those employers more tightly into Fiverr’s freelance marketplace — Stoke will remain independently operated, but the products also will be integrated, so that freelancers hired via Fiverr can be onboarded and paid through Stoke — and also tie Fiverr more deeply into how those companies work with freelancers overall, even if they are not sourced via Fiverr itself.
另一个是帮助培训freelancer
CreativeLive boasts more than 10 million students worldwide, engaging online with live and pre-recorded classes in photography, video, design, music, craft and entrepreneurship taught by winners of Pulitzers, Grammys and Oscars along with best-selling authors and thought leaders.
Peloton
既然都谈了Zillow,也不怕丢人,再来谈谈Peloton。
疫情获益的公司其实都没有准备好。没有在疫情前准备好多产品策略。
之前谈论过Zoom就是这样的情况。想收购Five9,还不被批准。
Teladoc也是同样的问题,所以在收购了Livongo后,编了一个Virtual Primary 360的故事,但是出成绩就要在2022年了。
Peloton是自己的问题,把跑步机的推迟延误了。同时后续产品连雨点都看不到,至少要到H2才有新闻。
我会留着Teladoc和Peloton的主要原因是他们赛道里的第二名还找不到。所以留给他们的试错空间会大一些。
比起Teladoc,Peloton的innovation stack还会更强一些。硬件,软件,内容,生产,零售店,配送网络和社区。不过Peloton的执行真的很有问题,一步接着一步的错。最后和Zillow很像的是,在下坡的时候踩油门。
Others
Helion,一个nuclear fusion的startup融资500M,估值3Bn。
Blockchain有多赚钱?
备注:我持有的股票包括NET,FVRR,DOCU,SPOT,TDOC,PTON,TWLO,TWTR,DUOL,SQ,SHOP,TKWY,ZG,FB,MRNA,DMYQ,BRPM和DWAC。
"老狗学到新的东西" 哈哈哈哈 - 我就是ibuy只买了open