摘要
游戏的大变革
CBDC
其他
游戏的大变革
这周有两条有趣的新闻。
Axie Infinity Plot Sells for $2.5M
Metaverse: Virtual Real Estate Plot Sells for Record $2.4 Million in Decentraland
之前觉得在metaverse里面卖地是一件很傻的事情,因为metaverse意味着人将不受地域的限制。但是,这样的新闻出来,说明这个趋势非常强劲,不管他蠢不蠢。
看看相关token的价格
基本上都是在Facebook改名后开始暴涨,就算是这周五的crypto大跌也没有影响价格趋势。是不是觉得比买Roblox和Unity回报高多了?
这些token的价格是否是合理的,答案是未必。但是他们背后代表的趋势是明确的,Play2Earn注定会成为Free2Play后的游戏大变革。
从两个大的方面来看,为什么会是这样。第一,crypto先后转战于货币,DeFi和NFT,获得广泛成功的一个重要的原因是参与者都有机会在里面赚钱。所以在游戏方面,gameplay不是最重要的,可以让玩家赚钱才是重要的。第二,free2play的本质是扩大玩家的基数,因为是0成本开始。但是玩家也要对这个游戏感兴趣才行,不然可以去找别的娱乐方式。赚钱则是一个全世界普遍的需求,所以play2earn又进一步扩大了玩家的基数。
有人把这定义为financialization of fun。
In the end, I believe that crypto will unlock a paradigm shift in gaming. Though it’s still unclear what exactly that shift will look like, I believe that, in the short term, we’ll see earn-first crypto games like Axie and Zed Run create a black hole by onboarding players using financial incentives. Supplementing this growth will be guilds and DAOs on the periphery. In the medium term, we’ll see traditional-looking play-first games experiment with new monetization models using tokens and NFTs while attempting to onboard both traditional gamers and earn-first gamers. And, in the long-term, we’ll see a new generation of gaming that uses crypto that goes beyond just adding P2E mechanics.
传统游戏的高管也开始关注这个趋势了
The Blockchain Experience Will Improve
Asset Ownership Will Drive Player Choice
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations Will Extend Product Life
这周红起来的Wolf Game,就是一个很好的诠释。
Sheep, which comprise 90% of the NFT collection, can be staked in the so-called Barn to earn $WOOL tokens. Players may harvest, or ‘shear’, their $WOOL at any time, but doing so incurs a 20% tax that is paid to wolf stakers.
Now, a player may decide that they want all their $WOOL, and they can attempt to claim it all by unstaking their sheep. But here’s the catch. There’s a 50% chance that all the $WOOL could be stolen by the wolves, to be shared among wolf stakers.
Wolves also have a 10% chance of stealing newly-bred sheep or wolves, resulting in the NFT going to a random wolf owner instead of the player who spent $WOOL to mint it.
不需要太复杂的gameplay。简单,有趣,公平,来钱快是重要的因素。
CBDC
这周有几个政府和crypto之间的新闻。
Indian Government Submits Bill to Ban Most Cryptocurrencies, Dashing Hopes for Friendlier Measure
Japan to launch bank-deposit-backed digital currency in 2022
Nigeria’s eNaira’s lackluster start stands in stark contrast to the rising popularity of cryptocurrency in Nigeria over the past two years.
尼日利亚的例子说明了,crypto会影响一个国家的货币政策。如果不能有效的推出自己国家的数字货币,那么就会被现在领先的稳定币取代。而这又是一个美元为主导的领域,尽管这里面没有美国政府的参与。尤其接下来美元要加息,而许多EM国家未必跟得上的情况。
在过去的一年里稳定币增长明显
尽管USDT有很大被人诟病的问题,但是用户基数还是比USDC大很多。
恰好美国政府层面目前讨论最多的也是如何管理稳定币。这是一个很值得关注的地方。从股价上来看,Silver Gate比Circle强一些。
其他
Reddit的估值
Covid和Mobility的关系
Solana的开发人员
备战:我持有的股票包括SPOT,MRNA,PFE,GOOG,NET,PTON,COIN,ABNB,MQ,DMYQ,BRPM,FB。