Summary
Recession
Observability
Others
Recession
JPM看好今年的生意
forecast that it may hit its goal of a 17% return on tangible equity this year is one of the most bullish developments coming out of its Investor Day meeting Monday
不过Snap却说经济环境很差
“Today we filed an 8-K, sharing that the macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated when we issued our quarterly guidance last month,” Spiegel wrote in the note. “As a result, while our revenue continues to grow year-over-year, it is growing more slowly than we expected at this time.”
Walmart的表现不好
The world’s biggest retailer on Tuesday reported profit that fell short of Wall Street expectations and downgraded its outlook for full-year earnings per share from a mid-single-digit increase to a 1% decline.
但是Macy’s的结果却不错
Despite inflation, people are returning to malls to purchase luxury items, dresses, and other things. This has led to an increase in Macy's profit, as per their first-quarter financial report. A proud owner of Bloomingdale's, this departmental store chain is expecting more credit card revenue and a surge in Macy's share price in the upcoming months of 2022.
消费信心不强,但是消费数据不差。
不过手机公司准备减产
Initially, Samsung planned to produce around 310 million smartphones during 2022, but that has been cut down to around 280 million devices.
Apple wouldn’t increase production this year, with plans to produce 220 million iPhones this year. Market forecasts had expected around 240 million units this year.
科技公司的裁员在继续(Lacework是一家powered by Snowflake的网络安全公司。之前Cloudflare的CEO认为这个网络安全的收入在recession是不会减少的)
The company did not specify how many employees in total were affected. Lacework had reported having more than 1,000 employees in March, following a $1.3 billion funding round at an $8.3 billion valuation in November.
但总体的就业市场还是缺人
APPLICATIONS for US unemployment insurance declined last week by more than forecast, underscoring a persistently tight labour market.
Initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 210,000 in the week ended May 21, US Labor Department data showed on Thursday (May 26). The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a drop to 215,000.
现在到底有没有recession?普遍的观点是今年不会有,但是明后两年出现的概率在提升。简单来说就是不能证伪没有recession。Q3的财报也许会出现一些端倪,会从最弱的公司开始暴露。
GFC的时候,SaaS的增速也是大受影响
专门负责SaaS Billing的Paddle确认软件公司的收入开始放缓
Amid fears of a global downturn and plunging technology stocks, Owens said that he has seen a gradual slowdown of growth at the software companies Paddle works with. “We’re still fairly early into those trends,” he added.
增速下降,multiple下降。分析师们准备下调目标价了
从现在到Q3财报,感觉是一个比较安全的时间段,因为有growth tech股票的人已经不多了。
从长期来看,hard landing也确实是一个可能性。这篇文章写的不错。
“If declines in real incomes drove inflation cycles, we wouldn’t need monetary policy. The whole reason you need policy-induced recessions is that real income doesn’t reduce inflation unless labour-market conditions ease.”
随时做好跑路的准备。
And while the last few months have been painful for risk assets, there is no way a recessionary outcome is currently priced in. So far, in fact, the hawkishness of central banks has merely deflated the “COVID asset-price bubble”.
Observability
Monte Carlo,一家data observability的公司,估值16亿美元。
Monte Carlo counts 150 customers, which include big tech companies like Affirm and Intuit, but also JetBlue, PepsiCo, CNN, The New York Times, Asics, Rivian and others from many sectors. According to its funding announcement, the company has doubled its revenue every quarter since its Series C funding in August.
和大多数的数据平台都有合作
Monte Carlo works with many of the most popular data analytic or data warehousing companies that include Snowflake, Google‘s BigQuery, Databricks, RedShift, Apache Airflow, DBT, Tableau and Looker among many others. Its pricing model includes an integration and platform fee, as well as a cost per user.
竞争对手Cribl,估值25亿美元
This newest capital infusion will fuel something of a transition for Cribl, Sharp says, from a few-tool vendor into an observability “suite.” It comes in response to increased competition in the observability market, which at least one firm predicts could be worth tens of billions of dollars by 2024. Cribl’s list of competitors includes Observe, Edge Delta, Monte Carlo, Lightrun and the well-financed Chronosphere.
Data Reliability是一个很重要的问题,Airbnb有介绍他们内部怎么通过Airflow来管理
以前是DevOps,接下来是DataOps。
不知道Datadog会不会进入这个领域。如果是的话,就需要改产品方向了,从现在的
Monitor your underlying infrastructure, supporting services, applications alongside security data in a single observability platform.
变为observe everything。
Others
Ethereum的交易数据。
Fintech在SaaS公司的成本计算(Fintech is eating Software)
对苹果的描述,是不是有一种熟悉的味道?模糊立法,选择性执法。
My sense is the attitude has changed from, “We’re going to honor the spirit of this law and we’re going to do it in a fulsome way to show that we’re good actors.” And I think that has transitioned to, “No, we’re going to follow the letter of the law.” The letter of law, by the way, is super ambiguous because that’s what Apple does, Apple likes to operate in the dark, they don’t like to have a spotlight on their internal policies around this stuff. They like to be able to make decisions on a case-by-case basis. I made the point in my article, ATT is not law, ATT is a platform policy that is litigated in the dark on a case by case basis and Apple likes having that optionality. I think these platforms are doing this to say, “Okay, Apple, we’ll do it your way. We’ll honor the letter of the law here because the letter of the law is very vague and it’s not very instructive.” So now, you have to tell us where we’re violating and by the way, we’re Shopify. We operate on the web, what are you going to do? What is your punishment mechanism?
StepN也有一种熟悉的味道。
StepN proposes a twofold solution to sustainability. For one, it’s working on a price stabilization mechanism to ensure the cost of its coins is always at a rate that the shoes are affordable for new users but also not so cheap that existing users lack the incentives to mint new shoes; that is, create new shoes on the blockchain and sell.
Price manipulation is achieved through its dual-token system. When the price of its “utility coin” GST is too high and shoes get pricey, StepN will ask players to burn its “governance coin” GMT to mint new shoes. The supply of GST increases as a result, leading to a sell-off and bringing its cost down.
备注,我持有的股票包括MQ,PL和PTON。