周一
USD.JPY已经price-in了不少,止盈。
日本公司不给员工加工资,还要找一些冠冕堂皇的理由。不过这就是技巧,文明社会是讲究技巧的。
“It’s not necessarily good for people to feel like they’re being compensated because of inflation,” Takahito Tokita, chief executive officer of Fujitsu Ltd., said in a recent interview. “It’s better if we do it because the business is healthy. What we want to do is reward each and every employee who contributes to the growth of our company.”
按照目前的通胀水平,工资涨3%,还是负增长。这样倒是帮BOJ解决了一些问题。
觉得美元的利空短期应该出尽了,而USD.CNH又明显超跌。做多USD.CNH,下面这个breakout看上去不错。
BNPL在英国的欢迎程度在增加。Affirm的Levchin就讲过在经济不好的时候,BNPL的获客会更容易,但是客户的质量会变差,所以就是看管理风险的能力。
BNPL这个产品其实是没有问题的。关键是在于盈利。都不用谈funding cost。信用卡公司的收入主要来自于利息和各种收费,interchange fee是用了做rewards。
Using this framework, we decompose credit card profitability into its main sources— the credit function, the transaction function, and fees—and present three main findings. First, we find that, on average, the credit function makes up approximately 80 percent of the credit card profitability, whereas the contribution of the transaction function is slightly negative, as rewards and other expenses on credit card transactions outpace banks' interchange revenues.5 In addition, fees—in particular late fees—comprise approximately 15 percent of credit card profitability.
而BNPL则废除了利息和收费,把interchange fee作为收入,最终都走上了marketing 推广的收费模式。
周二
HSI开盘大跌,再试一次,加仓7500。
4507在大盘涨的情况下还是跌,太诡异了,减掉部分仓位。
有点担心明天日元如果大涨,人民币会不会也大涨,先止盈USD.CNH。
做多USD.SGD,这图比USD.CNH还夸张,把USD在2021年升值的部分都要了回来。感觉安全一些。
Ocado的财报不是太好,连线下超市都比不上,不知道会不会预示美国电商股的下场
Sales at Ocado’s UK retail business inched up towards the end of 2022 but failed to match the growth rates at mainstream supermarkets, while its forecasts for the current year fell short of expectations.
他的老朋友Autostore,最近靠着Amazon的传闻倒是涨了不少。
又是shitco狂欢的一天
市场现在又到了疯狂的状态,也许是多转空的时候了。好的机会,市场一般会给两次机会。
周三
BoJ不做改变。JPY大跌,确实SGD和CNH有一些联动,不过波动不大。对股票市场如HSI也没有什么影响,主要还是日本股市自己涨。
但是到了下午1点半过后,美元跳水,不只是对日元。
BOJ涨的全部吐出来。一个论调是什么都没有变。BOJ还是会pivot。下面这段话很有意思,万一BOJ来个squeeze怎么办?
But the end of YCC remains just a matter of time. As the Deutsche Bank foreign exchange analyst George Saravelos has pointed out, there are some reports that the BOJ may even own more than 100% of some benchmark 10-year bonds. This would imply, he explains, that “not only has it bought the entire stock, but it has lent it out to short-sellers who have sold it back to the BOJ.” At the risk of stating the obvious, this isn’t sustainable, and something must give before long.
另一方面,如果日元升值,global liquidity会出现很大的问题。
卖出一部分NET和LAW。
Stop Out部分ITB的空仓。mortgage application数量有反弹。加XLI的空仓,这个代码好像是真的没力气动了。
市场开始转跌,买入SOXS和TMV,加空TAN。
NET和LAW被止盈。TLT最后反涨倒是有点出乎意料。
周四
貌似昨天的行情很有意义?
Recession Play的新闻。Howard Marks谈论破产
The corporate default rate for the last decade or so averages about 2%, compared with 4% in decades past. “I think 4% is more normal,” Marks said. “Defaults and bankruptcies should not be that scarce.”
小银行的利润
The KBW Regional Bank Index fell 3.8%, with all members in the red. The broader KBW Bank Index dropped 2.6%. PNC Financial, which reported earnings earlier in the day, was the second-worst performer in the S&P 500. Shares closed 6% lower after the company missed fourth-quarter earnings estimates and forecast a 1-2% quarter-over-quarter decline in first-quarter net interest income.
Biotech的话题
At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, the industry’s most important annual gathering, biotech executives would normally be talking up their most promising drugs. But at the meeting earlier this month, they spent almost as much time detailing how much money they had as a way to assure investors they’re a safe bet.
Recession play倒是没有让美元继续走弱。SGD不仅对美元在高位,对CNH也是在历史高位。不过新加坡的大众报纸也在写SGD上涨空间不大,倒是让我觉得有点担心。
美元怎么看都像是要短期反弹
大盘继续下跌,加空SOXX,XLI,TAN。CME被止盈。
ITB终于遇到了基本面,加空。
房地产方面,KKR和Blackstone遇上了同样的问题。
KKR Real Estate Select Trust received requests in the first-quarter tender offer period to repurchase 8.1% of its net asset value, exceeding the 5% quarterly limit, according to a filing Wednesday. The trust fulfilled 62% of each shareholder’s request. KKR’s stock dropped 5.7% to $49.98 at 12:12 p.m. in New York Thursday.
不知道怎么可以arbitrage private REIT和public REIT直接的差别。
空Private Equity貌似不是那么简单,Apollo很自信的觉得接下来的10年很多机构会加投PE funds。如果public REIT的位置像ITB那样,就容易很多。
就业数据不错。但是关于TLT,市场还在斗争,那就继续观望一下。
Initial claims for US unemployment benefits fell to 190,000 in the week ending January 14 from 205,000 in the previous week, a report showed, indicating labour market resilience despite the Fed’s efforts to tighten monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 214,000 claims.
周五
日本通胀不低,但是低于预期?
HSI又在疯涨,看来时机还没有到,再降7500的仓位。
做空GBP.USD。觉得UK怎么都比美国差吧。这个位置值得赌一把。(由于USD.CNH的timing碰巧太好了,导致后面SGD和GBP的entry都不是很好。这在forex里面很亏,止损点大一些,R/R和sizing会相差很多。)
Debt Ceiling变成了热门的话题。
对股票不好,上次2011年标普跌了17%
应该对债好,不过现在高通胀
对美元不差,避险工具
加空ITB和TMV。
最后收盘,Rates全线上涨,美元微跌,美股大涨。有点出乎意料。
Google和Wayfair还是依靠裁员来boost股价。这个不意外。Netflix EPS Miss还能上涨倒是有点少见。ALLY和SIVB都是财报后大涨,又和PNC完全不同的节奏,尽管基本面并没有很好,比如SIVB的Deposit还在持续下降。
市场突然变牛了。不知道是不是因为option expiry,还是真牛了。只有下周才知道了。突然觉得卖掉LAW和NET好像是一个错误。QQQ还在跑盈DJI,上次这么火是去年8月。
Return of Tiger,最近所有的新闻都在显示金融环境变宽松了。
Link claims to be one of the first companies in the U.S. to enable customers to make online payments using their bank accounts. Since its founding, it’s attracted interest from investors including Valar Ventures, Tiger Global, Amplo, Pareto Holdings, Quiet Capital and Shutterstock co-founder and CEO Jon Oringer. Valar led a $20 million Series A funding round in Link while Tiger led a $10 million seed round; to date, Link has raised $30 million.
如果油价和大宗由于中国的重开而持续上涨,FED真的就是checkmate了。soft landing变为hard landing,难点是具体的时间点,所以债和股票都空着,总归能对一样吧。
IOBT,最近两天有了重大的变化,成交量突然大了很多和上涨25%左右。准备花些时间研究biotech里面这种情况的后续结果。
战略
最近读到一些关于战略的内容,觉得还不错。
Every product in the marketplace has substitutes and complements. A substitute is another product you might buy if the first product is too expensive. Chicken is a substitute for beef. If you’re a chicken farmer and the price of beef goes up, the people will want more chicken, and you will sell more.
All else being equal, demand for a product increases when the prices of its complements decrease.
Find a fast current over a large body of water. 感觉像在说做momentum trading。
寻找大的交易,不用一直day-in day-out的瞎忙。最近也在想今年有没有什么一定要做的交易。
It’s fascinating to me that both Buffett and Soros, despite their completely different styles, embody the economy of motion. They recognize that a few crucial decisions or deals define their careers. They understand that sustained stress and exhaustion, along with institutional pressures, make formidable enemies of great decisions. And both are among the rare players who persisted and survived in markets for decades.
就好比Jim Grant讲的,每一个年代都有其投资的特点。
Well, it’s always the same, and - here’s the catch - it’s always a little different. The trick is to identify the unique or unusual feature of a familiar cycle. In this regard, it helps to know a little bit of financial history, and to just that extent it helps to be a little old. But what is not helpful is to mistake the past for a certain roadmap to the future.
备注,我持有的仓位包括ITB(short), XLI(short), TAN(short), SOXS, TMV, 7500, GB, 4507, PL, IOBT, MQ, USDSGD(long), GBPUSD(short).