周一
港股大跌,没有什么基本面的新闻。科技,地产,连高速公路都在跌。加仓7500。
中国这边的新闻看上去都很一般。房地产销售很弱
工业金属的价格也在下降
Muted Chinese demand is threatening copper’s rally. Traders are more cautious as they’ve already priced in an economic recovery in China before evidence materializes, making it susceptible to a pullback.
Physical delivery premiums paid by Chinese importers have dropped, signaling a slowdown in purchases.
The Yangshan copper cathode premium over LME prices is at $29.5 per ton, compared to a five-year average of about $71.
白酒的库存积压
However, the new year’s recovery was not strong enough to clear the large inventory built up by distributors during the pandemic. Consumers’ desire for healthier lifestyles could affect demand, while businesses, especially in the property sector, where baijiu is heavily consumed for celebrations, have yet to stage their own recovery.
The inventory overhang has forced distributors, especially those for smaller brands, to keep prices steady, even though factories are seeking to charge them more to offset output that has fallen for five straight years.
This means many baijiu resellers are in the red, while its manufacturers are reporting double-digit revenue and profit growth. Analysts say this creates a time bomb that could end the baijiu bonanza.
FT出了一篇对中国重开悲观的文章。其实除了解除covid zero,其他大的问题都还在。
The big Chinese economic recoveries of the past decade or so have been characterised by two features above all: they have been stimulus-driven and investment-led. Large amounts of support via credit markets and local government off-balance sheet financing vehicles were all typically focused on supporting activity in infrastructure and real estate. Fiscal and monetary stimulus delivered a surge in investment spending.
China’s economic performance in 2023 will be different in the sense that this year’s acceleration in growth will overwhelmingly be just the result of the country ending its lockdown approach to managing the spread of Covid. So, the economy will enjoy what is probably best described as a spontaneous recovery (not stimulus-driven) which will see the biggest effects on services and consumption (and not investment).
Why will monetary and fiscal policy be playing a more or less neutral role? As far as fiscal policy goes, a big increase in China’s budget deficits is unlikely because one of the reasons for the reopening in the first place is that Beijing has become a bit more anxious about the stock of debt on the public sector balance sheet. It is almost as if the government wants the recovery to fix its balance sheet problem, rather than use its balance sheet to fix the economy’s problem.
Equally, further significant monetary stimulus is unlikely, since Chinese interest rates are already considerably lower than those in the US, raising the risk of further capital outflows if monetary policy is loosened much more.
买入4755 - Rakuten,最近融到钱了,觉得应该可以反弹一下了。
周二
HSI大跌后也没有反弹,PMI数据倒是好于预期。
雪球上也没有看见什么多头的声音。看多的人应该已经满仓了,等待入场的人也不会在这个价格进入。只要连续下跌,会有多头陆续逃出来的。继续加仓7500。
Ubisoft开盘大跌5%,有40个法国员工罢工,开会讨论下一次罢工。不过后来基本恢复了。看来这个价格可以支撑。腾讯去年40块买入,私有化的价格在50元左右。
NXPI财报不是很好,盘后跌,开盘涨,符合半导体的套路。不过,这不是我预期中的pop,不清楚后面的upside有多少,开盘后卖出。(被证实又是一个很傻的操作)
周三
发现Adyen的YTD居然只有8%不到。Stripe之前950亿,按照public market来算2022年跌了50%,就是475亿。最近准备融资在630亿,那就等于涨了32%,和其他growth tech差不多。
巴西的股票大致都恢复了。觉得crisis真的都是机会,只要在黑暗前守住就好。
英国的基本面很差,连IMF都把单独拉出来。
SMB破产很多
The total number of company insolvencies registered in 2022 was 22,109 — the highest since 2009 and 57 per cent higher than 2021 — according to data issued on Tuesday by the Insolvency Service, a government agency that deals with bankruptcies and companies in liquidation.
个人破产也不少
Personal insolvencies also reached the highest numbers for three years in 2022, as the cost of living crisis and falling real wages hit personal finances.
In a further sign of the faltering UK economy, lenders approved 35,600 mortgages for house purchases last month, down from 46,200 in November, according to Bank of England data
投资也是上不去
加了GBPUSD的空仓。
周四
FOMC的结果让美股大涨,Powell的问答环节有问题。庆幸上周把空仓都结了。
Arguably, his critical mistake came early in the Q&A, when he was asked if he was worried that financial conditions had eased. This appeared to be a straightforward opportunity for him to say “yes” and browbeat the market. He didn’t. Instead, remarkably, he said that financial conditions had tightened. They haven’t. These are the measures published by Bloomberg (in which a rising line shows loosening conditions) and by Goldman Sachs (in which a falling line means conditions are getting easier).
半导体板块已经疯了。感觉extreme greed就在眼前。想等到周线RSI进入overbought的阶段再空。
有一张图很有意思,和Dotcom Bubble时期对比。Cathie Wood又出来了,真的是dead cat bouncing。
亚洲股市开盘并没有跟着美国股市大涨,看来美国市场的主要原因还真的是positioning。HSI高开低走,看来差不多了。
USDSGD又是一轮下跌,如果按照交易止损应该跑了。但是又觉得现在是USD的crisis,没有希望,所以很有可能反转就快出现了。加仓USDSGD。
花时间扫了一下watchlist,发现Embracer Group的股价还没有动。结果去错了交易所,错过了开盘,只买到了一点,然后就看着这个股价越走越高。
BoE和Lagarde果真都是怂人,美元开始反弹了。EURUSD其实很拥挤。早知道不空SGD了,这个还有China Re-opening的概念。
开盘买入MJ,这么垃圾的东西YTD才10%,有潜力。原来想买DAVE的,不过成交量太小了,搞不好买够的时候市场都变了。
美元快速上涨,黄金跌,金矿股跌,买入JDST。黄金和HSI一样都是反弹了三个箱体了,回调一下也不过分。
周五
美元的反弹在持续。HSI继续跌,和美股完全脱节,而且一月份的Service PMI还是beat。真的是buy the rumour,sell the news。
日本人不炒故事,也不炒垃圾。后悔没有买日本的钢铁股。
TEAM的财报不错,不过也是跌。说明除了逼空,市场开始看着R/R的
白天,新加坡的经济数据好于预期,不过USDSGD都没有动,看来新加坡这边的因素很小,主要看美国了。
下午,继续买EMBRACER。发现之前买的垃圾tech股票都涨飞了。除了有Bear Rally的bias,另外一个卖掉的原因是觉得要积累一些YTD的收益。说到底还是不够自信。以后还是多花时间管理赔钱货,让winner一直跑。META或者NFLX抄底20-30%不难,但是一直拿着可以到100%,等于要去复制同样的交易6-8次(假设赢率在60%)。当然这需要对基本面做更多的研究。Crisis,怎么样都是有机会的,毕竟符合最基本的buy low sell high。
Non-farm Payroll的数据惊人。Rates和USD马上调整,欧洲的股票倒是没有怎么动。美股果真把开盘的大跌收复了。没想到最后收盘还是跌了,市场有分歧。很多SaaS股都在转方向了,除了苹果这么烂的财报还能涨,半导体属性。
下周股票怎么样很不确定,还要不要照着soft-landing来玩?美元倒是稳了。如果1月14号的通胀降的不快,soft-landing就玩完了。2007年也是一个transitory goldilock。历史上这个时间列表如下。18个月的话,Mike Wilson这一派就要跪了。
最近每周一个调调交易起来很刺激,不过真的很让人怀念慢牛的日子,看看科技新闻,YY一下就可以了。
最后有一个中国的新闻
再加上一尊要去俄罗斯的新闻,感觉又要不太平了。
备注,我持有的仓位包括
美元做多 - GBPUSD(short), USDSGD(long), JDST
中国做空 - 7500
soft-landing做多 - 4507, 4755, MDT, MJ, EMBRAC, UBI, BAYN, ADYEN
长期做多 - GB,MQ,PL,IOBT