周一 - 2月13号
BoJ的新当家人也许是pivot最合适的人选
Maybe Japan’s authorities have found the right person for the almost impossible task of retreating from yield curve control. The case for withdrawing from extreme dovishness, and declaring victory in Kuroda’s long battle to bring back inflation, is made simply enough. Core inflation is now its highest in 32 years.
墨西哥还在hiking cycle
日间做空了一把USDCNH,觉得短期涨太多了。HSI低开高走,和想象的有点不一样。卖出所有的7500。
最近发现飞机里的wifi服务非常普及了,Viasat也是这么说的,又是一个high capex的生意
Kakaku的这个电商周期好像有点久,Corsair却说游戏PC开始复苏了
美国人开始喝便宜的啤酒
红酒也是便宜的买的好
周二 - 2月14号
日本人预期利息涨价会影响房价,所以开始卖房了
日本经济和新加坡一样增长不行。BoJ的新当家似乎是一个有耐心的人,这样的GDP数据肯定会推迟他取消YCC计划的时间表。
大家的预期多数是要pivot,所以有可能又早了
Kazuo Ueda’s nomination as the next BOJ chief is prompting investors to reassess Japan’s monetary policy path. Seventy percent of economists surveyed now expect the central bank to tighten by July, up from 54% before. Over half expect the BOJ's next move to be scrapping its targeted range for benchmark bond yields.
美国在no landing。感觉就是美国的蓝领撑起了经济,和FED相互摩擦。
趁着CPI读数,卖出Adyen。这个数据是略低于预期,或者说并没有想象中的好。
按照上周的思路,做多USD.CNH。
盘前股票在跌,开盘上涨,买入SOXS,觉得SOXX再大涨的理由也不多了。
周三 - 2月15号
早上醒来又变天了。SOXS被第二次大涨精准stop out。
如果第一次上涨是逼空,想不明白这第二次上涨的理由是什么。
货币倒是没有反转。决定提高一下usdcnh的止盈点,防止也反转。结果悲剧了,很快就被stop out,然后市场就往上而去。发现自己最近的交易都是在猜方向,而没有什么conviction。当市场没有方向的时候,就很容易就被震出来。这样下去不是太妙。
中国的消费贷去了哪里?很难说这是利好还是利空股市。
As banks flood the market with a variety of lending products after pressure from Beijing for them to pump up the world’s second largest economy with cheap loans, some borrowers are taking advantage of the low interest rates to prepay mortgages or invest in stocks instead of buying goods.
两年期国债利率已经快回到去年的高位了。
美国零售数据好于预期很多。谁能想到美元和美股能同时走强。
买入TSN,觉得这个有可能在周期底部了。很糟的财报后也没有再创新低。管理层给出的预测和半导体一样。
And in Q1 and over time, markets will do their job, and we simply have to do ours. Q2 will be seasonally softer than Q1, and the back half will be better than the first half. While the back half will be better than the first half, we feel good about our business outlook.
这又是一个重资产的行业。之前CFO醉酒睡到别人家里去的新闻也是加满了负分。长期来看,股价的周期性还是挺明显的
周四 - 2月16号
没有想到连QS都能火一把,Impossible is nothing
买入AKAM,这个财报后跌的有点多,而且业绩也不是一无是处。
买入VNM,觉得他似乎没有必要去去年的低位了。政府好像也在救房地产。
Nubank的增长很不错。不过这种公司是按照tech估值,还是传统银行?
根据Sabre的数据,航空业还没有恢复,这和20年航空业的共识倒是一致。新加坡很多直飞航线到现在都还没有恢复。
周五 - 2月17号
买入EUR.GBP,这个的趋势和逻辑都比较清晰。发现一个长期的pattern,汇率如同猪肉。
UBI财报还可以,重新买回来。
Treasury Wine看来是真的在中国有救了
Farrell said he had been told separately that Australian dairy company Bulla had received its first Chinese order in a couple of years, and he was hopeful for a relaxation of high tariffs on Australian wine.
Farrell, a senator from South Australia, said that Wang had suggested his favorite wine was a South Australian red.
3M听上去很像Bayer
S&P Global Ratings announced late Thursday that it was downgrading 3M Co.’s long-term credit rating to A from A+, citing weaker-than-expected sales and margins and the overhang from high legal costs and potentially significant liabilities tied to military earplugs and legacy manufacturing of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).
S&P said it could lower 3M’s credit rating even further. “The pending spin of the health care business will leave the legacy materials science company with a smaller base of earnings and cash flow to support potentially large environmental obligations or legal settlements,” the ratings firm said.
Tesla传闻要买锂矿,和上周GM的新闻对应。感觉锂矿价格肯定是要peak了,然后过几年后,大家都说这个策略是多么的傻。
Tesla Inc. has been weighing a takeover of battery-metals miner Sigma Lithium Corp., people with knowledge of the matter said, amid rampant demand for the metal used in electric vehicle batteries.
一直在等印度的股市崩盘,不过又失望了
但是看到这段话,觉得还有机会。凡是希望用别人的问题来淡化自己的问题,都是red flag。
“There is an Adani issue, and there is the Indian market: they are separate,” said Rakhi Prasad, an investment manager at Alder Capital in Mumbai. The Adani selloff isn’t an India issue because the governance standards of many Indian companies are on par with global ones, while similar problems can be found in many other countries, she said.
花了几周的时间,尝试把新加坡幼儿园的股票增加到一个像样的仓位。近期增加了小学生补课业务(这个是刚需,因为小学下午1点半就放学了),开了20几个中心。这个事情在之前的财报里都没有提到过。只可惜股票流动性太差,怎么都买不够,也有点担心以后退出要怎么操作。还有一个问题是,这种仙股有了好消息,但是没有人cover怎么办。感觉投这个真的要把自己当股东了。
做空很热闹,耗费了不少精力,结果不赔不赚。接下来不参与了。通胀虽然没有快速下降,经济也没有想象中的糟,有可能今年全年都在震荡中渡过。
专注于做多。做多方面,进入的时机还可以,idea也不少,但是都卖早了。被2022年吓坏了,不想承受波动。如果进入的机会是等了很久才出现,那么过早的退出怎么看都有问题。得重新把不卖写进规则里,这样进入的时候多想想,减少随意性。
不用太担心macro的事件,这些是可以利用的机会,而不是规避的风险。
当下持有的仓位包括
EUR.GBP,CNE,BAYN,UBI,AKAM,VNM,TSN,GB,PL,MQ,IOBT