周一 - 2月20号
日本人真的是期待利率上涨
美国就业好是缺建筑工人,好像都是政府基建。
韩国把航空行业当作重要产业来发展了。
The country’s goal is to boost its share of the global space economy to 10% by 2045 from the current estimated 1%.
The government plans to double its annual investment in research and development to 1.5 trillion won ($1.2 billion) by 2027.
周二 - 2月21号
买入USD.SGD,昨天跌的比较多。
研究一下日本的铁路和航空,最近跌的比较多。Japan Airline对于国内市场下调预测,这经济看来真的不怎么样。
英国的数据是不错。EUR.GBP被stop out。
The pound soared as traders increased bets on Bank of England rate hikes after British companies unexpectedly reported the first growth in seven months.
Sterling rose as much as 0.6% to $1.2119, leading gains among the world’s major currencies on Tuesday, after an S&P Global survey of purchasing managers also showed a “sustained increase” in prices. The data prompted traders to fully price a quarter-point hike at the UK central bank’s next meeting and to up the expected peak rate.
京瓷在中国策略和西方同步了
It works as long as [products are] made in China and sold in China, but the business model of producing in China and exporting abroad is no longer viable,” Tanimoto told the Financial Times. “Not only have wages gone up, but obviously with all that’s happening between the US and China, it’s difficult to export from China to some regions.”
买入Devon,如果经济不差,油价短期没有理由会很差。这个财报跌了不少,至少管理层自己也在买。
卖出USD.SGD,感觉没有突破之前高位的能力。最近涨了很多了,搞不好会有大的回调。
周三 - 2月22号
做空GBP.USD,这个价位不错,UK最近也没有什么大事了。
买入Kakaku,难得比大盘走的强。
丰田开始加工资
Toyota has granted its 68,000 unionised workers the highest rise in monthly pay in about two decades, giving a boost to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s campaign for wage increases to address inflation.
Pizza涨价的后果,和Chipotle的遭遇一样。
Shares of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. plummeted the most on record in Sydney after the pizza chain operator said its first-half earnings fell as customers spurned price increases meant to offset inflationary pressures.
锂矿大跌
周四 - 2月23号
买入AUD.USD,坏消息都来了,应该可以反弹一下。
连Bloomberg都在关心越南,看来是快了。
Vietnam’s property debt crisis is intensifying as the country’s second-largest developer joined the ranks of peers seeking debt extensions after failing to repay a bond on time.
他的这个问题和中国几乎一样。为了反腐打压房地产,逼着房企降杠杆。所以这是有路径来解决的。如果下面VNM大跌的话,肯定加仓去接。
下午美元突然走强,AUD.USD被止盈。美元跟着就业新闻又涨了一次,做空USD.SGD。
AKAM这股价感觉有点弱,卖出部分。
苹果的这个技术,去年说做不出来,现在又说突破了。好事。
The goal of this secret endeavor — dubbed E5 — is to measure how much glucose is in someone’s body without needing to prick the skin for blood. After hitting major milestones recently, the company now believes it could eventually bring glucose monitoring to market, according to people familiar with the effort.
周五 - 2月24号
日本通胀高于预期,但是BoJ不会停止买债。
Ueda认为日本的inflation已经peak了。Really?
“It was a very balanced testimony,” said Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS. “He made it clear that if the price trend does not improve, then the BoJ would continue with easing measures while reducing their side effects.”
Core inflation has exceeded the BoJ’s target for nine straight months, but Ueda suggested the January figure was probably “the peak”, echoing the BoJ’s forecast that price growth would slow this year.
最近油轮又来了,可以在这个价位可以火,确实厉害
UK的consumer confidence高于预期,结果没有什么波动。
USD.SGD的空仓被stop out。今天cnh太弱了,美元太强了。
PCE超预期,美元继续上涨。
两年期国债利率突破之前的高位。
MOVE指数最近开始反弹了
买入SABR,这个故事和GB差不多。航空业在恢复,基本面肯定比2022年要好。虽然现在利息支出比较高,但是CAPEX和运营成本降低了不少,慢慢降杠杆就可以增值了。酒店业务也有出售的可能。
美元的大反转已经出现了。下面应该会出现的两个大交易是做多短债和做多日元。股票感觉又要进入peak pessimism,那做多的机会又要来了。比起油轮,钢铁,日本银行,觉得还是半导体这个趋势比较好。
备注:持有的仓位包括
GBP.USD(short), 2371, BAYN, AKAM, DVN, UBI, VNM, TSN, SABR, GB, CNE, MQ, PL, IOBT