周一 - 03.06
发现上周五VOW大涨,2023年的销售指引超预期。这个数据都是基于backorder,算是可靠。
越南有一些新的进展。不过大盘的表现一般。
SHARES in Vietnamese property developers rose on Monday (Mar 6), after the government amended corporate bond regulations to ease pressure on a sector squeezed by a credit crunch. This marks a change that temporarily rolls back parts of a major market reform adopted last year.
The move came as some corporate bond issuers, particularly in the real-estate sector, face liquidity difficulties and a crackdown that has seen the arrest of high-profile business executives, as well as the tightening in September of rules on the trading of privately placed corporate bonds.
The Ministry of Finance said last month that 285.2 trillion dong worth of corporate bonds will mature this year, 42 per cent of which were issued by real-estate developers.
Under the amended regulations, domestic bond issuers can now negotiate with bondholders to make principal and interest payments in assets – instead of only cash – and extend bond maturities by up to two years.
卖出NWG。最近仓位太多,整理一下。
这张图很有意思。如果higher for longer,那么有问题的公司就会加速倒闭。记得有本书写inflation的本质就是钱去了没有用的地方。
工业金属和相关股票在中国5%的指引下,都开跌。石油价格还算坚挺。
化肥也是有结构性的短缺?
周二 - 3.7
卖出2371,继续清理仓位。
DMP好弱,早知道买DPZ了。澳洲加息符合预期,弱。汇率跌,股票涨。
发现自己的一个错误,CNE上市的公司实体是PreSchool,而小学培训属于holding company。之前没有看清楚。没想到同一个品牌,同一个办公地址,同一个管理层,是分开来算的。公司管理层算计的厉害,准备退出了。
美国基建公司提高预期。
Construction equipment rental group Ashtead has lifted its full-year profit forecasts as its US business booms.
The FTSE 100 group had already been a beneficiary of the disruption to supply chains caused by the pandemic that prompted companies to hire rather than buy equipment including scaffolding and excavators.
晚上,Powell的讲话提升了50bps的可能性。市场的变化,看来是更偏向于recession。
利率升高,美元涨,美债跌
美股跌,石油跌
EM全线下跌
但是TLT在涨
加仓UBI,看看能不能往上面突破一下。觉得游戏还是一个比较不错的板块。
把DVN换成XLE。
Visa预测中国的跨界旅游需要6-9个月来恢复。
"As everybody knows, the borders have opened, but there's still a lot of infrastructure that has to happen for travel in and out of China to get back to where it was pre-pandemic. You got to get planes, gates, seats, visas, and all the stuff that the rest of the world has gotten close to back having. In terms of a well-oiled travel system, it's going to take 3, 6, maybe 9 months before we really start to see meaningful travel in and out of China."
根据Global Blue最新的数据恢复也不是很快,估计夏天会是一个突破点。Global Blue自称是recession proof。
周三 - 3.8
卖出BAYN,觉得这个需要的时间还是有点长。
最近Chatgpt普及还是挺快的。Salesforce的集成(不过这种产品很缺乏想象力)
The company said Tuesday that it will release software incorporating artificial intelligence to help salespeople, customer service agents and marketers do their jobs. Salesforce is calling the offering Einstein GPT, drawing on OpenAI’s technology that’s taken the tech industry by storm since the Microsoft-backed startup opened ChatGPT to the public in November.
Bing Search超过100M的DAU
We are pleased to share that after a number of years of steady progress, and with a little bit of a boost from the million+ new Bing preview users, we have crossed 100M Daily Active Users of Bing. This is a surprisingly notable figure, and yet we are fully aware we remain a small, low, single digit share player. That said, it feels good to be at the dance!
突然想到AI肯定会提升药物的discovery效率,所以做后续服务的公司应该有一个不错的tailwind。但是现在biotech的funding肯定也是有问题的。
连Dick’s Sporting House都提高预期
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. beat analysts’ estimates for the fourth quarter and gave a full-year profit outlook ahead of projections, suggesting demand for athletic gear and apparel remains strong even as consumers retreat from other discretionary categories.
Corsair这个降库存的故事很精彩,之前没有仔细关注。
最近半导体行业有两个breakthrough的故事。Applied Material
Last week, Applied Materials, the 2nd largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer in the world, announced they have a potential solution. That solution is the Centura Sculpta tool, a new tool that can perform a new process step, “pattern shaping”. According to Applied Materials, the Sculpta tool could be used to reduce the use of EUV lithography by as much as HALF for some layers. If true, this would reshape the cost structure of the industry. There’s a lot of room to be skeptical of Applied Material’s claims, so let’s bring on the nuance for this discussion.
There is a drastic difference in pricing between 800Gb and 400Gb pluggable modules today using the linear drive. 400Gb modules are in the range of the ~200s today, and according to Andy Bechtolsheim’s guesstimates, the 800Gb modules today would be at a ~350 dollar price per module. But if they use the linear drive, they could possibly offer this in the low 200s, with price parity with the 400Gb module! Not only would this massively push the 800Gb adoption curve forward, but this would nuke the economics of the 800Gb DSPs! This is a big deal!
只有大力发展tech才能对抗通胀
周四 - 3.9
SIVB盘后崩了,不会出现bank run吧?
卖出DMP。
中国开始出口铜,这和整个重开的故事完全相反。
China is poised to export a significant volume of copper in coming weeks, a relatively infrequent occurrence that underscores a tepid demand recovery in the biggest market.
At least four major smelters are planning to deliver between 23,000 and 45,000 tons of refined copper in total to London Metal Exchange depots in Asia, according to people with knowledge of the sales, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private.
The burst of exports confirms China’s weak economic rebound, with manufacturing and construction still gearing up after Covid-related disruptions over the past year. Market inventories have jumped recently, and a key question is whether the wave of outbound shipments will extend beyond this month.
就业数据没有什么大的变化。
周五 - 3.10
早上醒来发现SIVB和KRE直接带动了一个恐慌,股票跌,石油跌,债倒是在涨。Risk Off。
觉得SIVB这个案例还是有一些特殊性,不觉得是什么系统性问题。
自身风险管理很差
客户集中在startup领域
在FDIC保护的账户只有3%
SIVB和SI的问题很像,就是20-21的增速太快,一旦unwind就是灾难。
挺让人失望的是VC没有团结在一起自救,而是树倒猢狲散。
如果参考去年英国LDI的问题,只要FED提供一个紧急的资金线,depositor不要恐慌就没有问题。如果FED动作比较慢,会不会TLT出现一个crash?
英国的经济没有那么糟。想到有个人说欧洲的recession风险比美国小,看来也不是完全没有道理
Gross domestic product rose 0.3 per cent between December and January, following a contraction the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. This was higher than the 0.1 per cent expansion forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
就业数据还可以,至少不是一个一边倒的情况。
但是SIVB的情况没有让市场走disinflation的路线。依然是risk-off。Rates大幅下跌。能源还好。黄金大涨。EM倒是都没有什么大的跌幅。
SIVB的collateral damage开始浮现
Roku
Bill.com
Sunrun
Circle (wow)
买入JPM,觉得他体现了anti-fragility。
Sentiment进入extreme fear,好久没有看到了。但除了金融板块,也没有看到别的股票跌到流血。
下面就看SIVB的储户会不会得救了。如果周一就得救,那么肯定会有一个relief rally。周二又回到关键的CPI。FED的rates policy会不会因为这个事件改变也是一个未知数。至少有FED的人在周五还在喊50bps。如果不得救,恐慌会继续,值得看看有没有什么好机会。
备注,我持有的仓位包括AKAM,CNE,JPM,XLE,UBI,GB,VNM,TSN,MQ,PL和IOBT。