Some Reflections
回顾了一下最近4个月,其实每个月都有一个narrative shift
12月,中国从Covid Zero到重开
1月,Recession到Soft Landing
2月,Soft Landing到No Landing
3月,No Landing到Banking Crisis (Hard Landing)
在每次转化中,不同的资产都是在联动的,比如中国重开时,港股,工业金属和人民币;soft-landing时,QQQ,SOXX,TLT和DXY。Cross-Market的信号比单个品类的technical信号要准很多。
我的一个问题是忽略了大的逻辑,把注意力放在single names和相关的technical上来做决定。由于喜欢反着市场来交易找risk reward,所以进入还比较理想,但是退出都是错的。
要改变这个问题。接下来需要少花时间研究个股,多花时间观察narrative和cross-market signal。
Banking Crisis
明显低估了SIVB这个事件的影响。虽然周日FED出台了救市计划,但是阻止不了市场的恐慌。市场直接进入了crisis模式。Net Margin Interest说的比较好
Banks aren’t like other companies. A retailer or a builder goes bust and it leaves a hole in the market for others to step into, an opportunity for them to pick up market share. But when a bank goes bust, it sends ripples across the industry, impacting them all. Few executives of US regional banks this week welcomed the opportunity to win over Silicon Valley’s orphaned customers; they were too busy convincing their own customers they were different.
避险情绪上升。黄金,债和日元都在这周大涨。尤其是短期国债的变化远超想象,据说倒下了不少hedge fund。最好玩的是crypto,从circle出事担心depeg,到变成黄金和QQQ的合体。
由于小银行的问题,推导credit growth下降,得出hard landing的逻辑。石油和铜的价格大跌。觉得这个逻辑短期内没有任何影响,只有中期才会看到结果。或者说如果是这样的话,整个股票市场都应该进入crisis。
When the facts change, my view changes. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions, Small banks account for 30% of all loans in the US economy, and regional and community banks are likely to now spend several quarters repairing their balance sheets. This likely means much tighter lending standards for firms and households even if the Fed would start cutting rates later this year. With the regional banks playing a key role in US credit extension, the Fed will not raise interest rates next week, and we have likely seen the peak in both short and long rates during this cycle.
从而预期加息可能停止,QQQ在这周跑赢大盘。
如果banking crisis继续,这周涨的肯定还会持续,但是现在进入,感觉止损点都不低。
所以倾向于赌crisis结束后的修正。还是之前的观点,这次crisis并不是系统性的。而大家很容易把这个看作08年的重演。看数据,借钱的银行也集中在大家知道的那几家。
这周也没有银行倒闭。虽然fear容易传播,但人的记忆力也是有限的。过几天,新闻恐慌结束,没有人再去取钱,也就没有bank run的风险了。基于中国重开这个crisis的经验,就从跌的多的下手,同时留有余地在更低的位置加仓。配置了APO,XLF和JETS。
APO,在银行不敢出手做事的时候,Private Credit的增长很快,觉得他们应该是获益于整个事件。
XLF,代表大的银行体系,至少不受损
JETS,下跌幅度仅次于银行板块
当然情况也许会变的更糟。或者banking crisis结束了,也没有大的反弹,那么问题就严重了。
这算是QE吗?
一个简化的情况
A和B各存100元在FRC,FRC把200变成了长债
B要取100元,FRC不够钱,把长债抵押给了FED换来100元现金,同时付利息给FED
B取到了100元,把钱存给了JPM
JPM为了救FRC,又把100元给了FRC
FRC担心A也要取钱,不敢把这个100元贷出去,或者A把这100元变成了money market fund。
所以系统里面的钱这样看并没有增加。
有一个新闻显示经济是多么的好
A chip plant that South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS) is building in Taylor, Texas, will cost the world's biggest memory chipmaker over $25 billion, up more than $8 billion from initial forecasts, according to three people familiar with the matter.
"The higher construction cost is about 80% of the cost increase," one of the sources said. "The materials have gotten more expensive," the source added.
Positions
减除了一些仓位来集中来体现新的思路。卖出了JPM(主要是看到了Jim Cramer的tweet),VNM(经济真的很糟,开始降息,而且股市也没有配合大涨一下)和UBI。周二在CS新闻出来后做空了一天欧元。
交易仓位,AKAM, XLF, APO, JETS, GB, XLE
投资仓位,TSN, CNE, MQ, PL, IOBT