Banking Crisis
周末UBS收购CS。
央行之间的swap line增加。
Signature Bank的资产被收购。
First Republic救了一周也没有结果,窟窿太大,需要政府来承担损失。
巴菲特上周末传闻见了很多区域银行,但是没有任何消息传出来。
Yellen讨论给储户更多的担保,不过这需要法律,她目前没有。(既然救了SIVB的储户,很难想象别的银行出事了,政府会不救。)
DB周五开始被针对。
这周统计FED借款数量没有减少,这应该就是官员说的情况稳定了。
US institutions had a combined $163.9 billion in outstanding borrowings in the week through March 22, compared with $164.8 billion the previous week, according to Fed data Thursday.
小银行的钱还在流去大银行
Bank deposits fell by $98.4 billion to $17.5 trillion in the week ended March 15, according to released Friday by the Federal Reserve. Deposits at small banks slumped $120 billion, while those for 25 largest firms rose almost $67 billion.
所以银行的问题没有解决。如果再出一个问题,比如DB,那么narrative就会开始一边倒了。
What is Next?
去年赚很多的hedge fund在3月份赔了很多,这有可能预示着大方向的改变。
Said Haidar’s Jupiter macro money pool is down 44% this year following wild bond swings. Billionaire Chris Rokos also saw his macro hedge fund lose 15.3% this month through Friday, erasing all his gains this year and taking the fund down almost 10% year-to-date, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
His main Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund has slumped about 40% so far this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Most of the losses have occurred in March, with the fund declining 23% this month through Friday, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.
根据债券市场的定价,Hard Landing是最看好的选择。FED不会再加息了,而且马上就要降息了。这个接下来的cuts相当aggressive。
触发这一观点的主要是banking crisis。而banking crisis没有结束,这依然还是主线。支持这一观点的另外一个因素是CRE,这和区域银行又是一个feedback loop。
Almost $500 billion of loans will come due in 2024, a report from MSCI Real Assets shows.
Banks of all sizes accounted for $1.75 trillion of the $4.5 trillion in outstanding US debt on commercial and multifamily properties at the end of 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.
CRE确实不景气
在高利息的环境下,之前的项目已经没有拥有的价值
High-profile defaults have highlighted the potential for stress. Canadian property giant Brookfield last month stopped making payments on $734mn of loans covering two prime Los Angeles office towers while one of New York’s biggest office landlords, RXR, said it was negotiating with lenders to “hand back the keys” to two buildings in an acknowledgment that they no longer made financial sense.
另一方面,经济数据不差,各个国家的通胀数据都是高于预期。
英国
The annual rate of consumer price inflation rose to 10.4 per cent in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. That was up from 10.1 per cent in January and higher than the 9.9 per cent forecast by the Bank of England and economists polled by Reuters.
日本
In February data, processed food prices rose 7.8%, the fastest pace since 1976. Eating out also got pricier with hamburger prices soaring 25%. Consumer durables also showed double-digit gains, with new refrigerator prices jumping by more than a quarter.
Large Japanese firms have decided to significantly raise employee wages amid historic inflation. In the latest annual spring wage negotiations, key unions and their employers reached a preliminary agreement to raise total wages by 3.8%, the most in three decades.
瑞士
Swiss inflation was also higher than forecast in February, meaning the SNB is likely to hike by 50 bps today, Bloomberg Economics said. However, a lot depends on the SNB’s view of financial stability after the Credit Suisse rescue.
这段话也有一定的参考价值
这周经济有一个亮点就是房地产。二月份数据反弹(虽然这个数据是滞后的)
取消的比例已经稳定
One of the largest homebuilders in the US, Lennar Corp., noted in its earnings call last week that its February cancellation rate “was 14%, much below our normalized cancellation rate.” They also said that base prices have stabilized in all of the markets they operate in.
房屋开发商信心见底
如果经济没有被banking crisis带崩,那么high inflation也是一个不错的选择。这个本来就是2月初job report后的主线。这个regime和hard landing在债上面是直接冲突的,所以目前市场没有考虑。
最后一个可能就是由股票市场来代表的soft landing。下面这个标题也体现了这个可能的难度,本质上就是FED的既要又要的思路。
目前其实没有什么证据是支持这个思路的。反过来假设这个思路是正确的,其实upside看上去也很有限。
根据统计在pause hiking的回报历史平均就是8.2%。
Historically, a pause in rate increases has helped the stock market. In most of the six instances since 1970 when the Fed raised borrowing costs by over 100 basis points for a period of a year or more and then paused hikes for at least three months, US stocks have rallied, with the S&P 500 returning 8.2% on average, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The lone exception is the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, when stocks fell from May to December during a rate-hike pause.
如果从周五的收盘价来看,8.2%就是回到去年8月份的高位4300。那时候,公司的财报都不错,利息是3.3%,大家也是在等disinflation。反正我觉得挺难想象的SPY回到4300的。但FED pivot并不是完全都是好事,就像上面一段话里的最后一句。
综合三种情况,
hard landing,股票大跌
high inflation,股票跌
soft landing with FED pivot,股票的upside远小于downside
怎么看都是空股票最划算。
看一下现在股票的支撑就集中少数的板块。
钱往QQQ走,不知道是真的避险,还是在找exit liquidity。这个情况确实有过。
Positions
周一,UBS事件告一段落后,美国的反弹很弱。按照计划,清理掉XLF,JETS和APO。然后陆续清理了所有的交易做多仓位。
周四开始建立做空仓位。
交易仓位:SPXS
投资仓位:CNE,MQ,PL,IOBT