Markets
这周有很多重要的事件。神奇的是,在FOMC,Yellen的debt ceiling call和区域银行后,一周结束又一次回到了起点。
与之对应的黄金白银。
周一,白银就被stop out。幸好JDST还有一些利润,等于白玩。
债券的走势
能源的走势真的很弱
因为他们现在和银行正向关联
总的来说,还是一样没有方向,基本思路还是不要去press任何的trade,跌的时候long,涨的时候short,是比较合适的操作。
其实这也不是最近的事情。好处是,给了很多练习trading的机会。如果接下来10年都这样,buy-and-hold的人会疯掉。
中国PMI指数不涨反跌,周二开盘倒是没有大跌。7500被stop out。
中国的出境游还是低迷
"Travel from Mainland China has mostly benefited other parts of Asia so far, but early bookings suggest a strong interest in Europe as the summer approaches." - Visa CFO Vasant Prabhu
我之前买的GB目前来看是错的。对错和赚钱确实没有什么关系。
Estee Lauder财报不达预期
Estée Lauder executives had said in February that they were expecting a rebound in the current quarter that ends in June, as more Chinese shoppers travel to domestic hot spots including Hainan. The popular island province generates around 14% of Estée Lauder’s sales, according to estimates from analysts at TD Cowen. But the company now says it won’t be able to meet even those lowered expectations.
澳洲在周二给了一个surprise。我的USD.AUD在这之前就stop out,市场还是知道一些事情的。
欧洲的25bps在意料之中。经济数据是有好有坏
倒是德国的一个指标下跌的厉害,里面一大块是汽车。
中国在Tesla和国内EV的带动下,第一次成为了汽车出口国。日本的汽车公司已经感受到了冲击,BYD完全可以成为EV里面的Toyota。而下面很快就会轮到德国公司。中国公司的迭代速度很惊人,是一个巨大的优势。但从geopolitics角度来,德国会不会慢慢倒向美国呢?
美国的ISM数据倒是开始反弹了。
周二,JOLTS不达预期,不过还是在高位
有人说的好,soft-landing还是hard-landing,这就是就业和通胀的耐力比赛,看谁先下来。
周三的ADP数据,强
Service PMI,强
FOMC可以算是一个dovish hike。
“That’s a meaningful change that we’re no longer saying that we anticipate” further increases, Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the decision, when asked whether the statement is a signal that officials are prepared to pause rate increases in June. “So we’ll be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting, and we’ll approach that question at the June meeting.”
周五的就业数据,还是强
productivity下降,工资上涨,企业确实就只有两个选择,加价或者降低投资。
其实如果没有banking crisis,这个regime会很容易交易。当然没有如果。
Earnings
基于前一周TENB和NET的财报,觉得SaaS都有问题,尤其估值高的那些。但是考虑到裸空的风险,决定转用puts。对于一些看好的科技股票,担心上涨空间有限,用call的回报不大,就没有参与。最后选了ANET,FSLY,SHOP和HUBS,假设跌20%的话,回报可以到600%。
结果是ANET和FSLY正确,SHOP和HUBS错误。对的也没有做到600%,最后是300%结束。总体还是赚钱的。原来以为这个半开卷考试可以对至少75%。但是美国的经济真的不错。或者说TENB和NET其实是outlier。
下面是所有我关注的财报,确实从结果上看就对了50%,考虑到后面的股价波动幅度和当天反转的可能性,也许拿到预期回报率的50%。这么说,option至少要有400%的回报率才能玩。没选TEAM就是回报率不够。
50%的胜率,差不多就是总体交易的胜率。所以以后也不用纠结什么基本面了,根本就没有什么edge。当然基本面是一个filter,在不熟的地方有可能错更多。
这周有两个计划外的交易,也是一个对,一个错。周二,市场莫名其妙大跌的时候,买了MQ。周四,SHOP大涨的时候,空了GLBE,结果周五跳空高开被stop out。
也许有一个错误是应该在HUBS财报后去long BILL。这个是一条线的。
所谓的tech财报不错,其实没有想象中的差而已,并不是有什么高增长。和这周半导体的股票类似。所以下面没有macro事件的时候,应该也就在这个区间波动了。
可以看BILL的这段话
We ended up with TPV of 11% year-over-year growth versus our initial estimates of being flat and down slightly quarter-to-quarter, which is pretty consistent with normal seasonal trends. So we feel really good about the strength of the SMB customer base we have and the utility that the platform is providing for our customers.
Outlook还是很谨慎的
While we've seen initial signs of spend trends beginning to stabilize, we anticipate that the challenging macro environment and tightening credit conditions in the near term will translate into customers continuing to reduce spend from the elevated levels of the pandemic years.
Procore也谈到了同样的问题
And that the labor shortage is still the biggest challenge in meeting demand. Additionally, in aggregate, third-party external indices that we watch have remained stable. However, we did notice a new dynamic surface in Q1. Specifically, we saw some cautiousness on construction volume commitments for work that hasn't yet been awarded. We saw this within a small portion of our customers that came up for renewal in the quarter.
AI
上周谈到被AI Disrupt的生意,没有想到这周就来了,而且非常迅猛。
这是BoFA整理的列表
一开始没有想明白为什么IBM排在第一,后来想想项目管理,一大部分是写无用的文档,这倒是可以被取代。所以IBM的CEO也觉得不要再招那么多人了。
OMC在上面,也许和以后广告自动生成有关系。来自于Ben Thompson的评论
Two bits of background here. First, one of the areas of generative AI that I am the most interested in is its application to advertising: instead of having to supply assets that Meta can A/B test, Meta could generate images for endless A/B tests against a dizzying array of cohorts, delivering personalized advertising not just on a targeting basis but on a content basis.
Second, last year Meta disclosed that its click-to-message advertising business, which connects would-be customers directly with advertisers in WhatsApp and Messenger, was running at a $10 billion run-rate (Meta didn’t update that number, but Li said that it continued to grow last quarter).
What is intriguing is the potential to put these two things together; Zuckerberg said in response to a question about generative AI’s impact on Meta’s ad business:
很遗憾这周没有交易。因为把exposure都放到了上面的put里面,不想加多。而且我觉得Chegg是直接的问题,而Upwork之类的不会那么快体现。
这周Google的memo leak被讨论很多。LLM wants to be free。这篇文章值得一读。
软件行业的playbook又一次在上演,ChatGPT是第一个,但未必是最后的那个赢家。感觉由于不想让微软抄代码,他们不能开源,所以是一个战略上的死结。
Ideas
Short CRM,觉得他和TEAM会比较接近,而且profitability这招上个季度就用过了。
EXFY,BILL的DIVVY数据不错,应该不会太差,当然也不见得有很大的upside。
APO和KKR,因为FED的思路有了变化
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering whether to offer loss-sharing agreements to private equity firms and other nonbanks that acquire parts of failed lenders, after the regulator was left holding a large portfolio of Signature Bank loans following its collapse.
巴西的银行有可能见底了
Banco Bradesco SA is wary of granting loans as Brazil’s borrowing costs remain at the highest level in six years, with no easing cycle in sight.
The bank’s recurring net income dropped 37% in the first quarter in the yearly comparison, to 4.3 billion reais ($900 million). The results follow Santander Brasil’s report last month, showing a nearly 50% drop in profits. This is also a test of whether Latin American banks can weather the global financial crisis.
他的股价在财报后大涨。怪不得那几个巴西的fintech都涨的厉害
最后是U和APP,看到一个做游戏user acquisition的人说这两个渠道现在回报不错。这周DKNG的表现让我感觉upside在这个市场不会太小。
Positions
Long JP - 9433, 2371, 7832, 4183(这个是下周的重点)
Short EM - TUR(Short)
土耳其有两个汇率
US Short - LMT, STLD(STLD是之前就在关注,周四的时候没有下手,周五高开的时候做空)
US Long - YETI, MQ(YETI也是在周二大跌的时候买的,图看上去不错。基本面能看到一些理由,Vista Outdoor的财报也不错。下周财报前把仓位换成call。)
Long VIX - VIX Jun Call(这个就是一个保险)
Long Term - MQ, PL, CNE, IOBT