Markets
美国的数据都是利好disinflation
不过FED官员似乎还是不满意
Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said progress on inflation this year has been “mixed” with much of the deceleration occurring in food and energy prices and not enough progress in other categories.
“Outside of used motor vehicle prices, which fell unexpectedly in March, disinflation in core goods prices is occurring at a slower pace than expected,” Jefferson said in prepared remarks at Standford University’s Hoover Institution in California. “Supply and demand imbalances in the goods sector seem to be resolving less quickly than expected.”
Rates还是在price-in很多cuts
股市方面,SPX没有变化,Nasdaq和DJIA有了方向上的不同
能源反弹后又向下,天然气倒是稳住了
铜和白银崩了,这周最大的意外(上周末觉得SCCO的图很适合做空,不过看到铜价的位置觉得不太可能,price level和price change真的是两个事情)
美元走强,和别的货币反方向
问了AI,为什么在这种看上去是risk-off的情况下,VIX还在下跌。回答说,这是有序下跌。
Debt Ceiling在这周的讨论开始变多了
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said there are “simply no good options” for solving the debt limit stalemate in Washington other than Congress lifting the cap and cautioned that resorting to the 14th Amendment would provoke a constitutional crisis.
Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the US default on its debts unless Democrats capitulate to demands for “massive” spending cuts, a significant intervention by the former president as Washington contends with a looming fiscal crisis.
Mortgage rates could soar to 8.4% if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, pushing the mortgage payment on a typical home 22% higher and cooling property sales, according to a report from the real estate firm Zillow. Borrowing $500,000 at 8.4% would mean a monthly payment of more than $3,800, compared with about $3,095 with rates at 6.3%.
总体来说,macro环境没有大的变化。
ZipRecruiter的这段话也许预示着下一个pivot。
这周的earning赔率一般,没有下注,也是逃过一劫。值得留意的是adtech公司都不错,U,APP,PUBM,MGNI,TBLA,所以又买回来RAMP。
AI
Claude大大扩展了可以接受的token的数量,超过了ChatGPT。
Today, the AI research startup announced that it’s expanded the context window for Claude — its flagship text-generating AI model, still in preview — from 9,000 tokens to 100,000 tokens.
Google推出了Bard,免费。
Meta推出了广告相关的功能,速度很快。
Meta today announced an AI Sandbox for advertisers to help them create alternative copies, background generation through text prompts and image cropping for Facebook or Instagram ads.
从LLM的模型比赛来看,不像是iOS对Android这样的duopoly,而是有点类似于browser或者search engine一样的多头对决。现在是很难判定最后赢家的。但是first-mover一般都不是笑到最后的那个赢家。
很多软件都可以嵌入LLM的模型在加上一个chatbot的UI,就像很多软件都可以加一个search box一样。这让LLM开始变得像一个commodity,那么最终的价值还是回到了软件层面。就像internet刚出来一样,大家可以尽情幻想一下有哪些行业会被颠覆和淘汰。这也许才是最大的机会。
Ideas
EURUSD的仓位
基本面
price action,这周USD的disinflation数据都是先涨后跌。
技术面也是突破了支撑位
越南真的离底部不远了。就是只能交易VNM这个流动性有问题的标不是很好。
RocketLab认为自己已经没有竞争对手了。
Positions
这周日本股票让人难受,本来可以4个对3个,结果有两个被stop out。
Stock Long: 4183, 7832, RAMP, RXRX, TKWY
Stock Short: LMT, STLD, CDNS, IOT
Forex: Short EUR.USD
Option: Long VIX Call
Long Term Positions: CNE, MQ, PL, IOBT