Markets
这周的重点是Debt ceiling和Japan。Debt Ceiling的头条很多。在谈,多次反复,市场看好,但是目前还没有结果。
如果没有谈成,黄金会大涨。所以这周黄金一般。
在这周之前,有人认为谈不成是符合逻辑的。
周五这个新闻直接把股市打下来
反正他们准备周末加班继续谈。
美国股市还是很强的。
但是日本的股市明显更强,欧洲也不差。
看truflation的数据,disinflation的趋势很明显,所以inflation is transient?
让市场吃惊的是这周的就业数据,where is the recession?
还有一个搞笑的新闻,把macro的人都坑了
在目前来看,soft-landing的可能性确实提升了。考虑到之前市场的仓位非常bearish,往上squeeze也就不奇怪了。
现在债券市场只预测今年两次cut了。说实话债券市场不见得比股票市场聪明太多。
不同的term都守不住支撑位
美元自然继续走强
Commodity总体都弱。
Sentiment维持在greed很久了
这周的零售公司数据都一般。也许最大的pain trade是股票市场先squeeze higher,债大跌,然后经济突然恶化,市场再次反转。timing最重要,其他都是次要的。
AI
这篇关于AI的文章写的挺好的。
By building A.I. to do jobs previously performed by people, A.I. researchers are increasing the concentration of wealth to such extreme levels that the only way to avoid societal collapse is for the government to step in. Intentionally or not, this is very similar to voting for Trump with the goal of bringing about a better world. And the rise of Trump illustrates the risks of pursuing accelerationism as a strategy: things can get very bad, and stay very bad for a long time, before they get better. In fact, you have no idea of how long it will take for things to get better; all you can be sure of is that there will be significant pain and suffering in the short and medium term.
工作总归会有的
Chatgpt推出iOS app,QCOM的CEO也在讨论同样的事情,AI at the edge
So we have this view, which I think you’re going to agree with me, that computing — think about the story of the CPU. Computing started in the mainframe, and then it went to the personal computer, went to the palm of your hands, computing evolved into the edge and became distributed computing. So we thought, the same thing’s going to happen with the computing of AI, or inference. So we’ve been developing what is the best possible hardware architecture that you can put on the phone, put it on a PC, put it on a car, and have the ability to run high-performance AI at the edge.
Nvidia的alternative
但是竞争不重要,因为市场会很大。下周NVDA的earning肯定会强调这一点。
Ideas
这周日本绝对是亮点。GDP增长超预期
CPI也在上涨,但是又不高
同时BoJ是宽松的政策,而股票的估值偏低
这整个setup听上去都很完美,除了最近实在涨的太多。因为这已经是市场共识了。
像研究美股一样,开始系统性的跟踪日本股票了,接下来的dip觉得都可以买。
AI at the edge,觉得QCOM是一个不错的选择。不过这个股票的价格走的非常差,有两个大事件,可以等等。
原来想再long MTCH的,结果看到这个新闻
TME的subscription收入开始超过了打赏的收入
Graphite会有大的缺口?澳洲的公司SYR开始减产了
这周空了NKE,就是源自于这张图。查了一下库存天数也在高位。
Positions
这周的错误是Bandai Namco卖早了,而RXRX被stop out后应该再进入的。放tight stop还是很重要的,不然IOT和CDNS早就被埋了。在选UMC的时候,也同时考虑MU,现在看来是选错了。
Stock Long: 4183, RAMP, RKLB, TKWY, UDMY, UMC, UAL
Stock Short: RMV, NKE
Forex: Short EUR.USD
Option: Long VIX Call
Long Term Positions: CNE, MQ, PL, IOBT