Macro
ECB对FED的反应
周四还在嘴硬
周五就被打脸。
如果说23年是比哪个CB嘴硬,那么24年会不会比谁的经济没挂掉。
开空EUR.USD。1.10看上去是一个不错的level。
黄金没有在FOMC后像股票一样新高,而且Commercial还是高度bearish。
Intel的新产品
Dave2D的概括很到位,产品终于升级了不少,但并没有超越竞争对手。
觉得这个parity还是很重要。如果产品落后的时候,都没有被打趴。那么制造工艺上来后,明显AMD的日子不会好过。
Advanced Packaging发挥了重要的作用。同一赛道的BESI,这股价真的是把硬件当软件来卖了。
Using their Foveros packaging technology also allows Intel to build chips differently, and more importantly, it means they aren't limited to one specific manufacturing process – a hedge against problems with any one fab/node. Even in the present Core Ultra U and H series chips Intel is announcing today, the manufacturing choice for each of the tiles differs slightly, with the compute tile built on Intel 4 node, the graphics tile with Arc Xe graphics is built on TSMC's N5 node, and the SoC and I/O tiles are built using TSMC's N6 process. This flexibility means Intel can implement new technologies from different process nodes, tapping the benefits of any given node's specialty (e.g. frequency or density) and not having to produce (and yield) an entire chip on a leading-edge process
不过目前还是没有量产
Looking at the bigger picture, there are multiple signs that Intel is struggling to get Meteor Lake out the door for a 2023 launch, which they’ve long promised since it was added to their public roadmap in 2021. The company is still trying to recover from their multiple fab delays in the 10nm/7nm era, and the chip delays that came with that. Meteor Lake is Intel’s first major client processor built with an EUV process (Intel 4), and delivering it on time would be an important sign that Intel has put their fab and chip development processes back on track.
什么时候量产了,INTC的这个故事就可以火箭了。
新的产品里面都会带NPU。
All of Intel’s new CPUs will also come with an NPU, or a neural processing unit, offering “low-power AI acceleration and CPU/GPU off-load” capable of performing AI-powered tasks, like background blur, eye tracking, and picture framing. The integration is supposed to make it more efficient to run AI models like Stable Diffusion when compared to Intel’s previous generation of chips.
这个趋势已经非常明显了。
AI at the Edge
GOOG的Gemini里面有一个Nano版本,专门是在Pixel手机上有硬件支持的。
MSFT推出了Phi-2 small language model
With only 2.7 billion parameters, Phi-2 surpasses the performance of Mistral and Llama-2 models at 7B and 13B parameters on various aggregated benchmarks. Notably, it achieves better performance compared to 25x larger Llama-2-70B model on muti-step reasoning tasks, i.e., coding and math. Furthermore, Phi-2 matches or outperforms the recently-announced Google Gemini Nano 2, despite being smaller in size.
一个叫GGML的框架软件,明年会有10亿的装机量
which I learned recently is now embedded on every, I think Pixel 8 phone. It’s open source, and so you could see all the open source packages there and that company is now a significant aspect of, I guess, a billion phones that will ship over the next year. What it does is it enables you to run these cutting-edge models from companies like we mentioned like Mistral at the edge. So it’s sort of a CUDA alternative that can run on low-end hardware like MacBook Pros, relatively low-end hardware that is, like a MacBook Pro or a Pixel phone. I think if I had to guess, Apple will do something like that that’s theirs or use GGML, and just be like there’s a system-wide service for push notifications on iOS, there’ll be a system-wide service for machine learning and AI prompts.
在加上INTC和QCOM之前的新闻,明年就是AI on the edge的元年了。一开始也许会缺developer。这一方面INTC的优势在PC方面应该比QCOM强不少。而Smartphone基本就是oem自己来做了。又让我想起了Cloudflare的Edge Computing。
AI Revenue
ORCL的IaaS这个季度是16亿,同比增长52%,公司CAPEX超过10亿,但是不达市场预期。在大家都要GPU的时候,这是一个花钱就能增长的生意。对比Coreweave,ORCL的资金成本明显更低。想不明白为什么他连续两个季度CAPEX不达预期,但是接下来的guidance很乐观。而NET这个季度的CAPEX是27M,也不明白市场心中的AI故事到底是什么。谁是4th cloud?
ADBE的业务看不到有什么AI的味道。
New annual recurring revenue for Adobe’s digital media unit, which includes signature creative software such as Photoshop and Illustrator, will be $1.9 billion, the company said. That compares with an average analyst estimate of $2.02 billion. The miss in the outlook for the metric, which is a measure of annual subscription sales, “is clearly the disappointment” investors are reacting to, Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore, wrote in a note after the earnings were released.
The guidance “suggests the company could take longer than anticipated to realize meaningful contribution from its generative AI products,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana.
倒是SNAP的增长实际很多
said it now has 7 million subscribers for its Snapchat+ offering, which gives users early or exclusive access to features on its social media app, including artificial intelligence tools. That’s up from 5 million users in September for the service, which launched July 2022. Snap is aiming for 10 million users in the “medium term,” the company has said.
一个用户每月3.99美元,7M的用户对应330M的收入,也就是SNAP营收的10%不到。
这篇文章有点意思,Excuse Me, but the Industries AI Is Disrupting Are Not Lucrative。
文章的观点是LLM的质量不是架构,而是training data。海量的数据必然来自于低价值的活动,所以LLM目前能做的也是低价值的事情。接下来大家都应该学Mistral?
中国半导体
5nm的传闻已经开始了?感觉这也太看不起INTC了。
This year, SMIC shocked the world after it began mass production of Huawei's HiSilicon Kirin 9000S processor using its second-gen 7nm process technology. But the company seems to have at least one more trick up its sleeve: a 5nm fabrication process that is either already in use for high-volume manufacturing (HVM) or is in the final stages of its development. In fact, Huawei now lists a chip made on a 5nm-class process node — an eight-core Arm-based HiSilicon Kirin 9000C processor with Arm Mali-G78 graphics for laptops — on its website.
RF这块倒看上去是真的
MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Samsung don't just produce chipsets, they offer complete platforms based on their AP/BB chipsets, from the modem to the RF (antenna) design and architecture. This has led to a competitive landscape where companies like Avago/Broadcom, Murata, Qorvo, Qualcomm, and Skyworks dominate the RF Front-End (FE) market. Chinese competitors, lagging in technology and performance, find little room to compete here.
However, TechInsights’ continued analysis of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro reveals significant progress by China in bypassing technological embargos. This progress isn't just in the application processor system-on-chip (SoC) but also in the 5G BaseBand processor and mobile RF technologies.
华为能在7nm方面突破,在EDA上应该也是有突破。
如果这些都开始国产替代,一堆西方半导体公司要丢掉不少生意。semicap的替代风险短期不大,但是本来就已经和中国高度捆绑。
再加上ARM中国和RISC-V里面一大堆中国公司。所以西方半导体行业在中国的风险真的是多样化的。NVDA倒是derisk最厉害的。
Nikkei
FT有一个关于日本的新闻很有意思。家庭存款很多
Even after 30 lean, post-bubble years, Japanese households hold ¥2.1 quadrillion ($14.7tn) of financial assets, of which more than half ($7.7tn) is held in cash and deposits. By contrast, households in the US and UK respectively hold 13 and 31 per cent in deposits.
政府推出政策来鼓励大家买股票。新加坡的iFast起源就是类似的政策。
After years of failed efforts to coax that exact switch into investment, the Japanese government has created an unprecedented inducement. From January 2024, a dramatically expanded version of the Nippon Investment Savings Account, or Nisa, will offer a remarkable lifetime tax exemption for individuals’ equity investments. They have also raised the limit on both annual contributions from ¥1.2mn to ¥3.6mn and the cumulative limit from ¥6mn to ¥18mn.
2%的调整就可以让Nikkei涨25%
Even a relatively moderate positive answer and a mere 2 per cent reallocation of assets, say analysts at AllianceBernstein, could produce $150bn of inflows into equities. If that happened, it would be market moving, say brokers. Inflows of less than half of that from foreign investors triggered a rally of more than 25 per cent in the Topix this year.
不过日本民众貌似还没有完全做好准备。不过如果他们开始买的话,国外的钱也会继续进来,那时候就会很正向了。
“The Nikkei 225 has been rising quite a bit, so some people are taking a positive view of it,” says Kuniyama. But he notes the disproportionate appeal of the S&P 500. “Personally speaking, I think that young people in their twenties and thirties just do not have very high expectations for the future of Japan.”
Position
Holding: TSM, QCOM, AMZN
Shitco: CNE, PHR, IOBT,MQ, PL
PHR这周和DOCU走的差不多,区别就是没有人收购。
Speculation: Call(SAVE), PUT(DDOG, MDB, CRWD, SNOW), EUR.USD(Short)
AVGO的Call相当走运。幸好没有买股票,不然上周五就有可能失望的跑了。也幸好call不是上周五过期。