Macro
利息上涨,很多23Q4大涨的ARKK,RKT,XBI都在回落。但是Nasdaq和SOXX都是新高,
AI的能量可以超越利息的波动。这个月关于AI的消息都是超预期的
MRVL的custom chip生意
TSM的guidance,和AI评论
SMCI的数据
三星的AI手机说实话很一般,model用Google,功能也没有什么太大的新意,还不如Rabbit Tech。看来这公司确实是做硬件的,软件能力比较差。虽然占着内存复苏,手机复苏,AI on the edge三个故事,股票表现还是很一般。应该直接买AMD和NVDA。想等回调,结果等来了breakout。
备注:持有TSM,QCOM,MU和SMSN。
Supply vs Demand
SMCI的财报数据倒是引出了GPU不再短缺的讨论。从供应链的角度来看,去年的GPU是增长行业,短期供应不足,恐慌性采购,是最好的组合了。如果不再短缺,也不马上代表进入over-supply。
有一个利空的因素是GPU的使用效率提升了不少
Sam Altman was on the Bill Gates podcast and said the LLM compute cost reduction is the steepest curve of reduction he's seen in any Tech ever, 'way better than Moore's Law'.
如果需求可以快速增长,整体还是增长的。这边有一个分析师的增长模式
但是这是一个5年的计划,中间的路径有很多可能。至少目前来看AI Phone也没有unlock大量用户的理由。
Nvidia的销售就好比inflation最终必然会peak,是今年,还是明年,没有人知道。这么看AMD的故事就安全很多,反正基数很小。
Vision Pro
开始支持预售了。这个只要自己控制出货量,自然就会卖的不错。
下面是一些反馈。需要调整到位,不然会很难受
But 15 minutes into my experience, I started to feel weighed down by the device, and five more minutes later, I was in pain. To be fair, I should have flagged my discomfort to Apple earlier, and alternative straps were available for me to swap out. But I wanted to avoid wasting time. When I finally told the company’s staff about my issues, they changed the strap to one that had two loops, with one that went over the top of my head.
最好的体验是看电影。
The Vision Pro was mostly easier to use than I expected, and while it has potential as an all-purpose device that you could use for web browsing, email, even some industrial apps, its killer application, for now, is clearly watching movies (home videos or otherwise). I can’t pretend that Apple is the first to create a headset offering an immersive experience; that would be an insult to every virtual reality headset we’ve tested previously. But if you ask me what it felt like to use the headset, particularly photo and video apps, my answer is that I felt joy. It is fun to use. And it is up to you if this much fun should cost $3,500.
有意思的Netflix并没有支持Vision Pro
Netflix Inc. isn’t planning to launch an app for Apple Inc.’s upcoming Vision Pro headset, marking a high-profile snub of the new technology by the world’s biggest video subscription service.
还有Spotify和Youtube
YouTube said in a statement Thursday that it isn’t planning to launch a new app for the Apple Vision Pro, nor will it allow its longstanding iPad application to work on the device — at least, for now. YouTube, like Netflix, is recommending that customers use a web browser if they want to see its content: “YouTube users will be able to use YouTube in Safari on the Vision Pro at launch.”
Roblox和Unity的股票这周也没有任何动静。